2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks & Preview

Brutal outcome in Torrey Pines with relatively unknown Frenchman Matty Ice Pavon holding off a cast of other unproven winners on Sunday to take down his first career win. We are now on a sickening run of 3 straight winners well north of 100-1. Have not seen that since I started on this grind. After a year where we couldn’t buy a long shot winner, we’ve swung the pendulum to bananaland with a cast of jabronis *Taylor Swift’s boyfriend voice* winning week in and week out.

As for our card, Tony Finau was our only real contender at any point on Sunday where the flatstick failed him once again. Paced the field gaining 7 on approach and just couldn’t cash in a putt. The cold streak continues but we’ve seen some life with guys inside the Top 5-6 so hopefully the tides will turn shortly.

Moving on to picks for this week at the Sandy Bottoms Beach Pro-Am.

Picks

Outrights
Spieth 22 (1.4U)
JT (1.2U)
Day (.55U)
Deki 66 (.45U)
Postman 70 (.45U)
Hossler 70 (.45U)
Scott 80 (.4U)

T20
Fleetwood +110
Fitzmagic +115

T30
Scott +130
Clark +138

T40
Kitty Katayama+125

H2H Matchups
Scheffler o McIlroy
Spieth o Morikawa

WHALE PROP OF THE WEEK
Scott Top Aussie +210

All placements, matchups, and props are 1U each.

Preview

Course and Field

I’ll start by pointing out that the weather looks RUFF this week at Pebble. Rain in the forecast on Thursday and Friday morning. Temps won’t get above the mid-50s at the warmest. Wind doesn’t appear to be much of a factor until Sunday where it’s forecasted to have sustained winds in the 30s-40s with gusts into the 50s starting in the early afternoon. That will be enough to suspend play and push to a Monday finish as they did in 2023. Unfortunately, Monday looks equally as bad. Should make for a total fuck show heading into the weekend to see if play completes on time. Should the forecast hold, wouldn’t be surprised to see 3somes go off both tees on Sunday early to finish before the winds get bad.

Pebble Beach gets called back up to the big leagues this week as the Tour hosts its first “full field” signature event of the year. 80 players made up of the leftovers of the Top 50 OWGR plus some random qualifiers including the new Aon Swing 5 and 10 which is list of our biggest enemies who’ve stolen our money across the fall and early 2024 season. Weird flex moving a signature event to Pebble as a two-course rotation and pro-am. Shocking development from the quacks at the PGA Tour. Anyway, the course is notable and picturesque. Host of a recent US Open. Shoutout Gary Woodland.

This pro-am has slightly more intrigue than the AMEX variety. Real celebrities will show up here which doesn’t necessarily make it cool. Just Larry the Cable Guy and Bill Murray making snow angels in the bunkers high on peyote and an assortment of other B listers. Better than Bob and Phil from the Accounting Department at Pfizer who pepper the Amex Pro-am.

Field aside, it’s a similar narrative of a pitch and putt week albeit with a twist of weather and challenging greens. Greens are the smallest on tour here, so that is somewhat of a defense but both Spyglass hill and Pebble Beach play to Par 72 and 7000 yards or less. Pebble coming in around 6800 yards and Par 72 is criminal. Each player will play a rotation of each of the 2 courses Thursday-Friday before the final round circling back to Pebble Beach exclusively over the weekend. Monterey Pennisula is typically the 3rd course on rotation however has been dropped this year due to the limited field. Both courses are fairly similar on paper outside of the tree-lined fairways of Spyglass are rivaled by the vast coastline of the holes at Pebble. Will see a bit less wind exposure for that reason at Spyglass.

Neither is particularly challenging for the modern day player but Spyglass Hill plays somewhat difficult and PB somewhere slightly easier. PB is the only course with Shotlink, so not much to glean data wise from the other two except what we can see on the scorecard. Really not too much to overthink here though. Rough is minimal due to the amateurs and green placements should be more friendly on Thursday and Friday as a result. The wetness will soften the greens for close approaches and may negate some of the bad bounces that are typical of firm, fast Poa. Won’t say it is a complete birdie fest with winning scores in the upper teens but this isn’t a tough track by any means. Draws course comps to Riviera and Farmers due to the Poa greens, as well as Bermuda with the short coastal setup and Heritage for the sub-7000 yard wedge fest. Would pull from successes at both of those courses.

Betting Approach

Off the tee – Most everyone is going to be forced to the same landing spots off the tee. Strength off the tee is basically negated beyond wanting guys who mostly play from the short stuff, but given the fact the driver is mostly put away on a lot of holes it won’t be much of a differentiator. Driving Accuracy here is over 70%

Approach – Over half the approaches will be in the 75-150 range with over 20% in the 100-125 bucket. Want guys in the go zone with a wedge to hit these small greens. Some long irons mixed in when playing the shortish Par 5s. Not overly concerned with recent approach numbers as guys pop here given the volatility of wedge play.

Around the Green – Focal point this week with the small greens and emphasis on making par.

Putting – I’m not a big chase the hot putter guy but this is certainly a “gotta make plenty of putts” week. A 2nd straight week of difficult Poa will create a ton of missed 5 footers, so some special attention to guys who have historically played well here, Farmers, and Riv.

Course History – Hard to gauge this week as most guys at the top have never teed it up here outside the 2019 U.S. Open which would have been a totally diff setup. I’m still going to give credence to guys like Day and Spieth that have dominated here. Wouldn’t leave good fits out just because of the lack of experience though.

I don’t think you can get out of here without taking someone inside of 30-1 given the stacked field. I’m avoiding going all the way to the top given their edge is somewhat negated at an easier course like this and there will likely be more volatility with the crazy weather. I’m starting in the 20s and then packing in course history plays and underpriced quality players to fill out the outrights. Placements will bring in the mudders in the field like Tommy and Fitz who thrive in tough conditions.

Player Pool

Spieth – Admittedly, he’s a super chalky pick this week and for good reason. Owns 7 Top 10s including a win in his last 11 trips here. Winner in 2017 and narrow runner-up to Tom Hoge in 2022 when we were again on Spieth outright. Coming off a 3rd at Sentry where he gained 1.7 on approach and led the field in putting. Has commented on his own renewed focus on practicing this offseason. Should join his bash bro JT in capturing victory once again in 2024.

JT – I think we are catching a great number here with JT in what has already proven to be a resurgent season. 25 or 28 at various points this week is great. Coming off a 3rd at the AMEX along with several Top 10s in the Fall. Eats up short courses coming in at 5th in SG:Total on sub 7200 courses. Great wind player. Surprisingly sound putter on Poa. Has top finishes at most comp courses.

Day – Pure course history and odds play here. Like Spieth, Day has 8 Top 10 finishes in his last 11 trips. Has done everything but win. Same elite Poa putting history as last week at Farmers. Strong player in the wind and difficult conditions. After a torrid start to 2023 and a return to the winner’s circle, his form has fallen off so this doesn’t feel great. At 55-1 a week after he was half the odds, I’ll take one last stab.

Deki – Has become quite the enigma over the last 18 months. Whether it’s injuries or one absolute clunker of a round (like last week), Deki has struggled to find real contention. 13th last week gaining almost 4 strokes on approach and around the green. 1st in proximity from 100-125. 5th in oppurtinities gained and 8th in approach. He’s a neutral off the tee and good putting week from being there on Sunday.

Postman – I’m going to head back to the well once more with the poor man’s JT. Another strong showing at the AMEX gaining 10.2 strokes total and finishing 11th. 6th at Sony. He keeps churning out good performances. Shows out on short courses. Good wedge player and elite putter. Course should setup well for him. Do wonder if he can compete in this field.

Hossler – Feels like a sucker bet taking Hossler at 70 when Windy C was at 100 along with some other top-end players but we take a shot with Beauregard. 6th at Farmers last week including 3.2 on approach and 5 on the greens. Has gained 9+ strokes total in 3 of 5 starts and positive SG in his last 8. Playing as well as he ever has and comes to Pebble where he’s finished 11th and 3rd in the last 2 years.

Scott – Criminally undervalued this week. 80-1 for him here is a steal in my opinion. He’s probably more like 50-1 if this wasn’t his first PGAT start in 2 months. He’s been active with a 7th in Dubai on the DPWT and 2 Top 6s back home down under in December. Striking it well. 5th at Bermuda in November which shares a lot of crossover here. 12th in proximity from 100-125 and 1st in putts made 10-15 feet showing his newfound quality on the greens.

OAD

Rule of thumb in OAD is to take an upper echelon guy in the signature events as the cream typically rises to the top especially in a no-cut format. Don’t disagree this week, but will completely skip the top 4-5 guys and head to the second tier of class with guys like JT, Spieth, Fitz, or Tommy. All have sound short games should the winds get wild and conditions are tough. Still think there’s some possibility for another mid to longshot with the volatility of this event historically coupled with the weather and lack of experience amongst the elites at Pebble.

Model Results

Last 36 Rounds courtesy of Fantasy National