The Hangover: Masters Edition has set in. The year’s first major mostly delivered with 2 days of absolutely brutal wind conditions that tested the mettle of every golfer that teed it up at Augusta. Saturday gave us what appeared to be the pregame for an absolute rager of a Sunday with a quartet of contenders ready to go toe-to-toe with the Sith Lorde Scottie Scheffler. That lasted all of about 30 minutes until Scottie went scorched Earth to finish the back 9 on Saturday and set up a narrow path for true competition on Sunday. Scottie is just flat out relentless and undeniable. His victory was never in doubt once he teed off Sunday with not a single chaser, outside of Aberg, carding an under par round to give him a sweat.
We were just never going to be there at 4-1. Hat tip to those that took the plunge. Xander and Cam Young had admirable weeks but they just never were able to put their foot on the gas and make a charge. Unfortunately, on brand for both of them. Not sure Rory will ever don the green jacket. He completely melts when he heads down Magnolia Lane. Sad to see from one of the elites of the game. The curse of the defending champ continues to slap with Jon Rahm being a complete non-factor all week. Ludvig is going to win a bunch of golf tournaments including several major championships. He was built in a lab and has every tool to fill the trophy cabinet. JT is just mentally broken. Going 7 over on his last 4 holes to miss the cut is just all world putrid. I don’t know how you bounce back from that considering the pain he’s endured in his rounds leading up to the Masters. Easily my comeback golfer of the year going into 2024, that now feels like a pipe dream.
Final thought…glad to see Tiger out there again after his Zyn overdose at the Genny. He truly is the one guy who continues to move the needle for golf amongst the casual sports fan. Downside, he looks like an absolute corpse out there. It was like looking myself in the mirror on Monday morning after a 3 day bender. Lifeless and full of regret. Definition of a guy who peaked early in life. Been one hell of a life though. Hope he can muster one last run at a title in his career but due to the physical toll of Augusta National his best days at the Masters are far behind him.
For the 2nd year in a row, we head to Harbour Town Golf Links for a signature event immediately after the Masters. I subscribe that it’s a bit of tired take to complain about getting up for this event either as a player or fan. Harbour Town is one of the coolest tracks on tour where guys continue to be challenged despite it being a short track. It’s another Pete Dye track which is known for it’s visual intimidation, forced layups and doglegs, and overall positional golf. Recent years when the fields have been stronger we’ve seen long hitters perform well but Petey forces you to take your medicine when you miss and requires you to stay patient through all 18 holes. Target golf is the phrase you’ll hear plenty this week. Course will not let you overpower it or turn it into a putting contest. Tight fairways and small greens characterize most holes out here. Personally think this provides a bit of a softer landing before we truly get a couple week break ahead of the Wells Fargo and PGA at Valhalla in May.
Last Week’s Recap: -5U
Season Results: -20.5U
Moving on to picks for this week at the RBC Heritage.
Picks
Outrights
Xander 20 w/ 3 places
Cantlay 20
Cam Young 35
Lowry 60
Davis 80
Tom Kim 100
T10
Cantlay +150
Cam Young +220
T20
Lowry +115
Davis +150
Glover +160
Moore +160
H2H Matchups
Young o Morikawa
Davis o Poston
Hoge o Schenk
Cantlay o Fleetwood
Conners o Henley
WHALE PROP OF THE WEEK
Xander Top 10 +110
All placements, matchups, and props are 1U each.
5 Things / Stats You Need to Know
Here are the 5 things that you should know about the this week’s field and tournament.
1. Cue Up the Pete Dye Specialists
Pete Dye tracks tend to share a lot of commonalities such as intimidating visuals, positional or target golf, run-offs around the green, and overall quirky designs. A few of his notable designs that are mainstays on Tour include The Stadium Course at the American Express, TPC Sawgrass at THE PLAYERS, and TPC River Highlands at the Travelers Championship. Not uncommon to see the same cohort of golfers peppering the top of the leaderboard at those tournaments. The experience and relative comfort these guys have on his tracks tends to give them a head start in these events compared to those that just haven’t figured out Petey’s unique approach to course design.
Here’s the Top 25 in Strokes Gained Total on Pete Dye courses:
2. Masters Hangover is Real
Not that it’s uncommon for guys to play back to back weeks but playing a major, especially The Masters, is a different beast to back up. I’m completely avoiding the guys that were truly in contention last week as that mental grind is hard to bounce back from immediately even more so on a course like Harbour Town where being just off can have you scrambling. Scottie, Homa, Collin, and Aberg will be crossed off for me. Homa quoted as saying Sunday was going to be blackout city for him. Who knows what changes Collin employs this week. Aberg might be the only one in this list I’d consider given his youthful ignorance. Probably best to just stay away.
3. Approach and Around the Green are the Major Keys *DJ Khaled voice*
Combining our things you need to know and stats a bit this week. We’ve got another 2nd shot golf course on our hands this week given the less than driver, positional nature of this course off the tee. Staying in play is the name of the game OTT this week where accuracy is up and distance is down as guys club down. Add in the 2nd smallest greens on Tour and you’ve got a recipe where approach and around the green play will reign supreme this week.
Here’s the Top 25 in Strokes Gained Approach and Around the Green:
4. Experience is Worth a Look
While this course isn’t known for producing super sticky course history, there are a pool of golfers that have consistently outperformed their baseline on this course. Qualitative narratives are always met with some opposition but we saw last year that angle plays with Matty Fitz finally landing a long sought after victory here. We’ve seen plenty of consistency in the front page of the leaderboard even after this became a signature event and the fields got stronger.
Here’s the Top 25 in Strokes Gained Total at Harbour Town:
5. Small Field, No Cut in Play this Week
We get a 69 man field this week in the standard no cut format that we’ve started to see in the signature events in 2024. Typically that lends itself to the cream rising to the top here however I think this is a course where you can take a few shots down the board and find some magic this week. With OTT negated this week and plenty of missed greens in store regardless of pedigree, you’ve got a chance to find some value deeper down the odds board. This tournament historically has jam packed leaderboards with playoff victories in 2023 and 2022 along with 5+ guys within a handful of shots of the lead on the back 9 Sunday.
Player Pool
Xander – Dude continues to just stripe the golf ball. No one is playing better in 2024 than Xander this side of Scottie Scheffler. As with any week, the win equity question follows Xander like a case of herpes but we may be reaching a fever pitch on that one where Xander sees some positive regression on the win front. Site of his last win? Travelers in 2022. Both a Pete Dye track and tournament after a Major. Undeniable synergy in the narrative. There’s really nothing outside of the “can he win” narrative that doesn’t point at Xander to contend this week. 2nd T2G, 3rd ARG, 6th Ball Striking, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, and 4th in GIRs Gained. Produced a 4th place finish in the 2023 installment of this tournament which included a pedestrian Saturday 70 after holding the 36 hole lead to derail his chances for victory. Enough for me to jump back on and get a little odds bump with the 3 places EW in a small field.
Cantlay – Mr. Harbor Town himself. No one has gained more strokes at the RBC Heritage in the last 5 years than Cantlay. This consistency has produced a 3rd, 2nd, and 3rd in his last 4 appearances here. Similar to Fitz, Patty Ice has underscored the importance of this tournament to him and his strong desire to win. Does trying really really hard produce results? Not always but in a week where motivations are in question look no further than Cantlay as a player who will undoubtedly bring his best. The numbers and recent form will not give you any warm and fuzzies however he showed a little life over the weekend in Augusta which he can hopefully ride into this week.
Cam Young – Another guy like Xander who is hitting the piss out of the ball right now and cashing in nice results as well. Cam added yet another Top 10 to his 2024 resume bringing the total to 4 in his last 7 tourneys. Typically expect to back Cam on longer tracks where his driver can give him a head start but he’s shown he can still use his length as an advantage when the opportunities present themselves on short tracks and consistently keep the ball in play with long irons. Showcased this in 2022 where he bolted out to a big lead on Thursday with a 63 only to stumble a bit on Friday and finished 3rd at the RBC Heritage. While he continues to be challenged in putting 4 strong rounds together, Cam should once again be in the mix at a track he’s had success on in the past while being in the midst of some extremely good form.
Lowry – If Cantlay and Fitz are the Kings of Harbour Town then Lowry is the Prince. Last 5 years here, he’s stacked up two 3rds and a 9th including gaining strokes putting in all 3 of those performances. Known captain of Team No Putt, Harbour Town was made for Big Shane. He’s always in the fairway and his iron game is second to none right now. Small greens create a lot of missed greens as mentioned and therefore a high one-putt percentage for those who scramble well. This recipe should mask Shane’s putting woes a bit and keep him in contention. Shane is 6th T2G, 9th in Good Drives, 6th on Approach, and 3rd in Opps Gained in his last 24 rounds. At 60-1, there’s more than enough value to warrant Shane’s place as one of the best fits this week.
Cam Davis – Tout of the week this week goes to Cam Davis after he was a mainstay on the first page of the leaderboard at Augusta during the first 3 days before sliding out of contention on Sunday. Coming in off a 21st at Houston and 12th at the Masters while gaining 6+ strokes at both stops, Cam might be showing enough form to suggest a ceiling performance is near. Never been a question of talent with Cam Davis, lauded by many as having as much talent as anyone outside of the elite tier of PGAT golfers Cam should be poised for a breakout W at some point. He’s shown immense promise at the RBC Heritage with a 7th in 2023 and 3rd in 2022 gaining over 9 strokes to the field in both appearances. Probably not going to play this down to his current 50-60 but love the 80-1 number that was floating around on Monday.
Tom Kim – Similar to Shane, TK was pinned as a complete misprice by the market early on Monday opening north of 100-1 in a 69 man field. Tommy is playing some of his worst golf in his short time on Tour but we’ve seen what his ceiling looks like and it’s not to be priced at 100-1 in a small field. Closed the Masters with a Sunday 66 which was good for the 2nd lowest round of the week outside of Bryson’s opening round 65 so maybe Tom has found something he can bring to a course that should fit his profile.
OAD
Small field and a big purse raises the stakes for this week in OAD leagues, however the added wrinkle of what is usually a hotly contested, packed leaderboard makes for a more challenging selection than other signature events. I think this is a perfect week to ride the course horses such as Patrick Cantlay and Matty Fitz or try and capitalize on guys like Xander and Cam Young that are trending towards a win. As far as signature events go, I think this is one on the shortlist that you can get a little frisky at if you want given the propensity to see a bunched leaderboard on Sunday. With that said, Shane, Russ Dog Cafe, and SeaBoo Kim make for good darts in the middle of the board who are excellent fits for Harbour Town.
Model Results
Last 24 Rounds courtesy of Fantasy National.
The Weekend Heater 
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