Almost heaven Augusta Georgiaaaa. We’ve finally made it ladies. We finished our final tune ups of the winter/spring on both main tours and now the real stretch run of the golf world begins at the mecca of the sport. The Masters at Augusta National Golf Cult. Not even going to recap the last few weeks on the circuits for this outlet because it would be a bout of commiseration and during the Super Bowl week of golf we aren’t going to lament our shortcomings, only celebrate the week upcoming.
These are the weeks where we remember how good we really had it before the LIV exodus and now balance of powers across tours. We lose some of the middle tier that typically filled out the fodder of the smaller Masters field (pour one out for self-proclaimed World #1 Talor Gooch) but we still get the heavyweights which is all we care about anyway. Rahm, Brooks, Cam Smith, DJ, and Bryson headline the alphas of the LIV Tour followed by Fat Pat Reed, Bubba, Sergio, and others who maintain their relevance under the former champions exemption. We can only hope that Jay Moronahan, the PIF Lorde Yasir, and the band of idiots that pretend to guide both Tours can come together and open up the borders or LIV institutes changes to qualify for OWGR points. Until that point, guys like DJ and Bryson are on the clock and the the other Majors will soon be devoid of many LIV elites. Problem for another day though.
This Masters marks a bit of an inflection point for the golf season in my mind where headliners of both Tours have largely underperformed to standard, and the rank and file jabronis have run roughshod on both Tours stacking wins and paychecks. Scottie “Sith Lorde” Scheffler notwithstanding. In a tournament that has historically relied on experience and pedigree, we can only hope the heavy hitters bring the noise this week setting up a Sunday to remember. I’m looking forward to seeing how sticky the course history truly is when many of the yearly competitors, such as Brooks, Rory, Zalatoris, JT, and Hovland, come in with little form to speak of. I’ve struggled with the dichotomy of whether this year’s edition is wide open for competition or Scottie and Rahm’s to lose. Certainly don’t see anyone else stepping into a dominant performance, so I’m hopeful for the former holds true.
Plenty of storylines to look forward to as we approach to the start of this year’s tournament.
Brief update on our ship taking on water before we get into the picks and thoughts for this week.
Last Week’s Recap: -10U
Season Results: -15.5U
Moving on to picks for this week at The Masters.
Picks
Outrights
Brooks 21
Xander 22 (boosted)
Finau 50
Lowry 55
Cam Young 60
Theegala 65
T10
Rahm +120
Xander +160
T20
Finau +125
Lowry +125
Reed +175
SeaBoo Kim +175
Moore +425
First Round Bets
Lowry 45 w/ T5 +700
Cam Young 45 w/ T5 +750
H2H Matchups
Lowry o Morikawa
Johnson o Dechambeau
Henley o Hatton
Thomas o Morikawa
Schauffele 3 Ball o Matsuyama, Niemann
Henley 3 Ball o Homa, Hatton
WHALE PROP OF THE WEEK
Tiger to Make the Cut +125
All placements, matchups, and props are 1U each.
5 Things You Need to Know
Here are the 5 things that you should know about the this week’s field and tournament.
1. Course History is King at Augusta
You won’t find a course on Earth that has stickier course history that Augusta National. The type of sticky icky that would put you in a coma for a week. It is one of a kind. Course History should be your number one factor when placing bets this week. Sure, things happen and guys figure it out here over time but unless the number compels you it’s always better to wait and see on on guys before taking the plunge. Like do not bet Max Homa and Lady Hatton. Homa has 2 MCs and 2 finishes in the 40s. Hatton has one T20 finish in 7 trips. If you don’t get it then you don’t get it. Follow the history and bet the Rahms, Brooks, Xanders, Lowrys, or Finaus of the world.
Here’s the Top 25 in Strokes Gained Total at Augusta.
2. Form Won’t be Found at Augusta
Trust me I’m a sucker for a big number on a long-term talent like Morikawa, Hovland, Cantlay, or Homa but they are all hitting it far from their long-term baseline right now. This isn’t a get right spot against the Skins sieve of a defense. If you don’t have it on the drive down Magnolia Lane then you won’t find it unloading shots on the range. Can they rely on pure skill to stumble into a couple good rounds and a T20? Sure but they won’t be donning the green jacket Sunday.
Here’s the Top 25 in Strokes Gained Total coming into the week.
3. Weather Looks Daunting Thursday and Friday
Temps will be consistently in the upper-50s early and quickly getting into the 80s in the afternoon however thunderstorms are forecasted Thursday morning followed by consistent winds in the mid-to-upper teens through Friday. Gusts will sit in the upper-20s Thursday and push upwards into the mid-30s on Friday. The difficult green complexes to hit on approach are going to get more difficult and scrambling around the greens is going to become even more important. You’ll hear plenty about the sub-air systems that Augusta has under every green and fairway which will dry out this course in short order. Should amplify the impact of the winds early in the week. Saturday and Sunday look Vontaze PURFICT. We are in for a show coming down the stretch.
4. I’m Anti-Trends but Don’t Ignore Them
I don’t know if it’s the sticky course history, the Illuminati of Augusta, or Jesus Christ himself but the trends rarely miss here. Debutant hasn’t won since 1979. Fuzzy Zoeller is that guy, you’ll hear his name in conjunction with Ludvig Aberg enough times to make your head spin this week. Only 3 back-to-back winners in the history of the Masters and two of those are Tiger and Jack. It’s hard to defend any tournament but whether it’s the pressure of the winner’s dinner or media obligations guys just don’t defend. Still like Rahm to have a good week. Only twice in the last 30 years has a player won after missing the cut the previous year. Tiger in ’97 after missing the cut as an amateur and Fat Pat Reed who has sold his soul to the Devil so he doesn’t count. Easy to make the cut here with Top 50 and ties and those within 10 of the lead making it to the weekend in a 90-100 man field, however trend is the trend. This crosses off Rory, Bryson, JT, and Harman (HA). You’ll find a billion of these. Worth considering.
5. Back Door is not Open for Biz
Yet another trend but of the more palatable variety here. Only twice in the last 20 years has a golfer come back to win after finishing outside the Top 10 on Thursday. Both were the Tiger King. It’s a sad reality to have to rip up tickets on Thursday if you’re guy comes out and shoots 74 but it is what it is. These trends are always subject to change though. Just temper expectations and live shots if your guys are trailing early. Alternatively, if you wanted exposure to the top of the board and want a little more safety then you can feel more comfortable hitting the live board after Thursday or Friday with comparable numbers as pre-tournament.
5 Stats You Should Care About
Here are the 5 most important stats to factor into your selections for the week. Stats from Last 24 Rounds courtesy of Fantasy National.
1. Par 5 Scoring
Most important stat for me coming into the week. Winners always dominate the Par 5s. The Par 3s and 4s are very tough and the 5s are mostly all gettable. Rahm won at -12 going -10 on the P5s. Scottie at -10 going -8 on the P5s. Deki at -10 going -11 on the P5s! You get the point.
2. Strokes Gained: Approach and 200+ Yard Proximity
Augusta is a second shot golf course. Success is predicated on strong iron play more so than most weeks given the wide fairways you could land the Malaysia Airlines flight if you can find it.
3. Around the Green Play
These green complexes are super tough. Scrambling for par is going to be a consistent challenge.
4. Total Driving
Flies in the face a little bit with the Approach importance but those hitting it long and straight are always going to have the advantage.
5. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in Windy Conditions
Thursday and Friday look treacherous with wind and as mentioned a hot start is critical for success.
Player Pool
Xander – Listen the lack of closing ability isn’t totally unwarranted but he’s still a 7-time winner on Tour. Won’t be a hot take this week to back Xander with the red hot form and every stat pointing his way. Last 36 Rounds he’s 2nd T2G, 4th on Approach, 6th Around the Green, 6th Par 5s, 2nd in 200+ proximity, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance and 3rd in GIRs. Certainly expect Xander to be there on Sunday given all of this and can only hope that the scar tissue of recent Sunday collapses can give him some motivation to get over the hump.
Brooks – Another shocking pick I know. Brooks is a major killer as a 5-time major champion. Here to avenge his 2nd place to Rahm in 2023 after pissing down his leg in rare fashion on Sunday. Comes in off a bad LIV Miami performance but if there’s anyone not to ignore recent form it’s Brooks. There’s not much more I can say that you probably haven’t already seen.
Finau – Can’t stop won’t stop baby. Friends and family card representation is a must. At this point, if you have read even a couple of my articles you know I’m a Finau simp. Coming off a *painful* runner-up at Houston where he was a couple short putts away from a playoff with Jaeger Bombz, Big Tone is in great form. Has gained 5+ T2G in 5 of his last 7 events coming in. 6 of those 7 gaining 2+ on Approach. Tone has the spike iron ability to get into the mix anywhere, any week. Putter is always the bugga boo for Toney which the guys on my card in general are no stranger to. He’s not been in contention at Augusta in some time after finishing 10th and 5th in his first two appearances but he’s gained strokes in all 6 appearances.
Lowry – Irons are hotter than anyone on the planet gaining 5, 4, and 6 on Approach in his last 3 starts coming in. Consistent, accurate driver of the ball. Good enough around the green player. Has hunted down some big titles including The Open in 2019 despite not typically being known as a prolific winner. Similar to Finau, he’s a lukewarm putter away from being part of the Sunday story. He’s a great example of someone that has found his footing at Augusta after a horrific start to his Masters career. His last 4 starts at Augusta have been 16th, 3rd, 21st, and 25th. Another popular mid-tier pick and for good reason.
Cam Young – Quietly one of the hottest golfers coming into the week with 2 Top 5 finishes in his last 4 starts. Has gained on Approach in his last 6 starts which is typically the recipe for him to get into the mix as he’s the best driver in this field not named Rory McIlroy. His driver will start him on 1st base in this field and if his irons stay this hot then he will need just an average putter to get in the mix. Finished 7th in last year’s Masters. Well-documented “close but no cigar” finisher since breaking out on Tour including a 2nd at The Open in 2022 and 3rd at the 2022 PGA. Unlikely someone gets their first win at The Masters but he’s also a couple better swings away from a handful of wins.
Theegala – Built for Augusta National. Strong but somewhat erratic driver that can get bailed out with the big fairways. Can spike with his irons with the best of them. Creative maestro around the greens. Maybe the best putter in this field outside of Denny Mac. 9th in his Masters debut last year. Coming in with 3 Top 10s in his last 5 starts. Great outright bet as he could completely flame out but if he’s on early then he will ride the momentum to Sunday contention.
OAD
The easy cop out strategy this week will be to choose a LIV golfer and save more of the PGAT “elites” for later in the season. There is a ton of credence to that take and I don’t completely disagree with it. How could I? However, I think this is the major where you can open the aperture to picking any golfer, regardless of Tour, who sits inside 65-1. 65-1 sounds odd but I had to cherrypick by own card. The Masters is the one tourney of the year where you can cross off 75% of the field and say they won’t win. That creates a ton of win equity at the top-end of the board. With that in mind, I think you cannot ignore the Scotties, Xanders, or Rorys as strong picks this week even that removes them from consideration for future signature events. We get the same big purse here as a signature event and you can still carve out a nice roadmap for the remaining PGAT schedule. This still leaves you the PGA, US Open, and The Open to fire off Rahm, Brooks, Bryson, Cam Smith, or DJ. Xander is going to be my OAD this week. Can’t go wrong with any of the top 5-10 on the odds board.
Model Results
Last 24 Rounds courtesy of Fantasy National.
MCM Model includes 45% Masters Model, 35% SG: Total at The Masters, 10% SG: Putting on Lightning Greens, 10% SG: ARG on Lightning Greens.
The Weekend Heater 
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