Richmond Raceway
Race Recap
Well well well, we have our first 2x winner of the season after Slick Willy B takes down the EchoPark at COTA. Not surprising seeing as he started from the pole, but what is somewhat surprising is that it didn’t appear that he had the best car on the track on Sunday. Timely breaks and long green flag runs really allowed Byron to distance himself from the field, and while other cars were faster and able to gain, the lead was just too large to overcome. A valiant effort by C Bell as he gave chase late, as one of the cars faster than Byron, and cut into the lead in the last few laps. Just not quite enough track left for him to take the lead as he ultimately finishes 2nd. The Dinger 6th, Larson 17th, van Ginsbergen 20th, and Kobayashi 29th round out the rest of the lovable losers from last weeks card.
This Week’s Race Preview
2 up, 2 down representin VA! We’re at Richmond Raceway for the Toyota Owner’s 400 and we’re back at the shorty tracks. Workin on our night moves, 7PM puck drop under the lights this week.
Track
0.75 mile, Paved, Oval, Short Track
Betting Intro & Stats
Short track with moderate banking and high tire wear. Comps this week will be Phoenix and New Hampshire. Bristol is not a good comp given the racing surface and banking. Take qualifying with a grain or two of salt this week also, qualifying will take place Saturday morning and the race is Sunday evening. The way the cars react to the track at those different times can be pretty different. Another note, JGR and Toyota’s do well here. This is their sponsored track, hence the name of the race, and they have a pretty good history of performing well here.
Going back to the 2016 you have some interesting history on the race winners. Denny, Larson, Kyle Busch have all won 2x. Truex has 3 wins in that span. Kyle Larson is your defending champ from the spring race last year, and Chris Buescher took down the fall race.
Let’s take a look at some recent stats from www.driveraverages.com.
Picks
Last Week’s Recap: – 0U
Season Results: – 16.45U
All the JGR guys driving the Toyotas are under 10-1, except Ty Gibbs at 10-1. For my money, I like Truex here.
Chalk: Martin Truex Jr 11-2 3U
Well, its happening. I’m breaking the rule and dropping below 10-1. I like Truex the best at the top of the board. Starting P7, good track history, good shorty history, and good form all year. I just don’t know what else to do this week. I cant find a confident play in the 10-15 range and TBH I’m feinin for a W. Lets get it done this week c’mon.
Mid-Range: N/A U
Cant do it. There’s no plays in this range that I like this week. Given that we are breaking the cardinal rule and dropping below 10-1 for the outright, saving units by skipping this range.
Tingle du Jour: Todd Gilliland 200-1 0.1U
The ToddFather is back! I think this line is too long to pass up. He is starting P6. He has looked good for most of the season. He has the potential to win. It will take a perfect race script but if he can maintain his top 10 position and gain late – hey, it could happen!
Other Notables:
John Hunter Nemecheck 120-1
DFS Strategy
Same story as we’re used to at this time. Dominator points aplenty with 400 laps this week. Going to definitely be a 2 Dominator race, possibly 3. One caveat to keep in mind, Richmond eats tires and is known to have drivers fall off the lead lap. To be comfortable playing anyone starting outside the Top 25 you need to be certain they can move up and quickly. While its not impossible, it is significantly more difficult to pass at Richmond. That being said. nail the dominators, get 6/6 through on the lead lap, and 4/6 in the Top 10 and you should be firmly in the money.
Raise Hell Praise Dale
The Weekend Heater 
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