The common man’s hero, bucket hat boy Peter Lou Malnati shocked the golf world with an improbable Sunday victory at the Valspar. As opposed to our other longshot soul snatchers this season, this one was awesome to watch as long as you weren’t holding a Cam Young ticket. Pete did a little bit of everything on his way to victory including topping a 3 wood like a weekend hacker and an absolute dart on the 17th to slam the door shut on a stumbling Cam Young. Tears were shed in the post round interview highlighting just how much a win like this means to a rank and file guy like Malnati. Sure the win for Cam would have been a huge monkey off his back, rather than his shocking 7th runner up in 3 seasons, but this made for an awesome story. Easy to throw shade at yet another jabroni winner however this one was just different. Shows the PGA Tour is still capable of producing some Sunday magic.
As for our card, it was a slam your fingers in a car door type of weekend. A late swap off Cam to JT (looked moronic for most of Sunday) looked like mastermind stuff with JT heading into Saturday as the favorite on the board. Rather than separating himself from the soft field, he completely pissed down his chicken leg shooting 79. Not to be outdone, Killa Keith entered Sunday with a 2 stroke lead only to soil himself with a Sunday 77. No words for just how bad those two rounds were. Just all-time kicks in the nuts.
Cannot be deterred as we are on the doorstep of Major season. Keep firing and hope the golf gods throw a few our way after yet another collapse.
Last Week’s Recap: -5.5U
Season Results: 0U
Moving on to picks for this week at the Houston Open in you guessed it Houston, Texas.
Picks
Outrights
Zalatoris 20 (1.5U)
Theegala 22 (1.4U)
Finau 35 – boosted (.85U)
Sea Boo Kim 35 (.85U)
Dahmen 100 w/ 6 places (.3U)
Pendrith 200 (.15U)
T20
Hughes +200
Dahmen +250
List +275
T40
Dahmen +105
Brammy Bombz +130
H2H Matchups
Horschel o Bhatia
Knapp o Jaeger Bombz
List o Monty
WHALE PROP OF THE WEEK – BONUS ADDITION
Noren Top Scandinavian +162
Day Top Oceania +120
All placements, matchups, and props are 1U each.
Thoughts and Approach
Course
Memorial Park Golf Course
– Par 70, 7435 yards
– Muni but a big boy golf course
– Weird setup style *again* with 5 Par 3s and 3 Par 5s
– First stop of 4 this season in Tejas and usually played in the Fall Swing
– Very few bunkers or water here
– Challenge comes in the pure length, elevated bowl-like greens with steep runoffs, and uneven lies on the fairway
– Can get windy here making the long iron approaches a nightmare – expected to have consistent 10ish mph winds with gusts as high as 20mph
– Appears to be a bomb and gouge week with rough now being shaved down to just over 1 inch – change from prior iterations
– Poa Trivy greens again which is a shift from the historic Bermuda greens here – same greens we’ve seen in Phoenix, PLAYERS, and Valspar – lightning quick this week
– Another decent Augusta tune up with the ability to spray a bit OTT, uneven lies, long iron focus, and challenging around the green play
– Typically plays as one of the hardest courses on Tour with a scoring average around a stroke over par – expecting this to play a bit easier now with the non-penal rough
Scottie Scheffler, Tejas native, headlines this event with Windy C, Zalatoris, Sahith, Finau, and J Day. Pretty decent field considering the place on the schedule. Kind of a hold your nose week as Scheffler is in the midst of a fucking weekend heater himself with back to back wins in stacked fields. Coming in at around 3-1 on the odds board, he’s in rarified air with the probability the books are giving him to win. Unbettable. Also, don’t soft and bet the w/o Scottie market. Just don’t do it. Not long ago, Scottie was a regular T5 finisher and wasn’t winning. Just not a guy with the putting game, though vastly improved recently, to back at that number or give the books more juice on the without Scottie numbers.
Couple schools of thought this week with taking a shot up top and then packing the card with longshots in hopes of an each way or Malnati like finish. I’m choosing instead to fill up the card with the 3 players that I think have the best chance to take down B grade Scottie with a spike week. Don’t want to ignore the head start guys will get if they can bomb it but we’ve seen more plodder like players excel, Joel Dahmen for one, with a peak ball striking week.
Finau is our reigning champ and while he had a clunker of a performance last week at the Valspar his putter was actually a positive. Ball striking took a step back but that’s been abnormal for his 2024 year. Good long iron player and has shown the ability to blitz fields like this with regularity over the last few years. Similar story with Zalatoris, great long irons and excellent ball striking numbers this year. Bad PLAYERS result but we will forgive and forget for the Tejas native.
Sahith was built for this course and you’ve probably already seen plenty of touting in the Twitterverse. Good distance and will get away with spraying it. Magic beans around the greens and one of the best putters in the field. Would be shocked to not see him on the first page come Sunday. Sea Boo isn’t long but he’s been absolutely cooking OTT and on Approach. It’s been happening mostly on short courses where his wins have also come however he’s another guy when he’s on can beat most anyone.
Love Dahmen this week just as I did last week. He gained 9 strokes ball striking last week only to lose an equal 9 strokes on and around the greens. I’ll continue to chase the elite ball striking form in hopes of seeing some positive regression in his short game. This course being as challenging as it is around the greens makes me a touch nervous but he owns 2 Top 10 finishes in the last two Houston Opens. Going to take that type of ball striking prowess to track down Scottie in this field. Finally, T Pendy is just a pedigree and numbers play. Going off at 200 in this field is criminal for a guy of his talent even in the midst of questionable form. Hits a mile and has shown to spike out of the blue. Good dart to wrap the card.
OAD
Intriguing OAD week even with the run of the mill purse where you can either take a shot on a guy like Sahith or J Day that set up well here and have as much win equity as anyone not named Scottie or you can deploy a similar Valspar strategy of punting the week and live to fire another day. Something to be said about taking Sahith or J Day who probably don’t have a ton of value in signature events and hold plenty of win equity if Scottie stumbles. I’ll be going that route with either Sahith or Sea Boo. Can’t fault you for heading down the board further for Killa Keith or Noren in the mid-tier.
Model Results
Last 24 Rounds courtesy of Fantasy National
The Weekend Heater 
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