We are carrying ourselves over the finish line of the Florida Swing this week at the Valspar Championship in the greater Tompa Bay area. Moronahan and the PV Boys finally pulled the right strings with an elite PLAYERS Championship last week. Why is it capitalized? We’ll never understand the rare breed that frolics PGAT HQ. Sure Scottie wins at 5-1 which was nearly unbettable but he won in all-world fashion shooting a Sunday 64 chasing down the de facto finishing duo in Windy Clark and Xander. Somehow Windy’s putt on the 72nd hole is still circling the rim of the cup and didn’t go down to force a playoff.
Many aren’t writing this off as another Xander choke but we don’t see how shooting a Sunday 70 while all the other leaders shot in the 60s isn’t a tiny pee pee down the leg. Scottie undoubtedly earned it but Xander held the door open for him.
Our card was essentially a train wreck with a bunch of middling finishes highlighted by a complete implosion by Killa Keith after blacking out on Mai Tais at PV beach on Friday. Ho hum performances from Big Tone and Suga Shane and didn’t look like Keegs or JT got off the PJ and opted for a week off. Not the sequel to our API hit on Scottie that we wanted but we press on.
It’s March Madness week which *Donald* Trumps this piss pot of a tourney so we’ve been justifiably distracted this week with more important affairs. Nevertheless, we will share some thoughts and a few punts for the weekend.
Last Week’s Recap: -8U
Season Results: +5.5U
Moving on to picks for this week at Valspar Championship in Palm Harbor, FL.
Picks
Outrights
JT 15 (2U)
Finau 30 – boosted to 39 (.8U)
Killa Keith Mitchell 50(.6U)
Rai 65 (.45U)
Straka (.45U)
Ghim 70 (.45U)
Dahmen 110 (.3U)
NeSmith 220 (.15U)
T20
Finau +137
Rai +200
T40
Ryder +115
NeSmith +160
H2H Matchups
Finau o Im
Glover o Hossler
WHALE PROP OF THE WEEK
Winning Score Over 268.5 +105 (FD)
All placements, matchups, and props are 1U each.
Thoughts and Approach
Course
Cooperhead Course @ Innisbrook Resort
– Par 71, 7340 yards
– Weird setup style with 5 Par 3s and the normal 4 Par 5s
– Not really a Florida course as we’ve seen – more traditional parklands with still a Southeast feel
– Water taking a back seat this week for the most part – leave the water wingies and goggles at home
– Bunkers and challenging rough (read: traditionally challenging) are the defenses typically growing to 3+ inches but the PV boys are known to fire up the mowers at any point
– Rolling terrain – uneven lies even in fairway and undulating Poa Trivvy greens – poor man’s Augusta comp in that aspect
– All dogs go to heaven this week with 12 count ‘em 12 doglegs across the 13 Par 4s and 5s – some of them hitting you double doggy
– Boring golf week where guys are challenged to just hit to your spots off the tee, find the green, hit a few putts, and avoid getting paper cut with bogeys
– LIV golf all stars pepper former contenders and winners with Paul Allan Casey, Charl, Louis, and Reed – Bonus this week if you received a LIV offer
Valspar tends to find itself as the forgotten step-child of the Florida Swing, usually falling as the swan song of the swing after a killer double feature at API and PLAYERS. Speaking of feature, we’ve got snakes on a plane down the final 3 holes as the primary draw for this track. The Snake Pit has the same leaderboard flipping trait as last week’s final holes at Sawgrass without the *Ric* Flair and notoriety. Still some intrigue to be found at this event if you need something to watch in between March Madness games this week.
Course plays quite tough as the 10th hardest on tour with a scoring average over par including all Par 3s and Par 4s playing over par. If you aren’t chewing up these Par 5s then you guessed it scramble the MF’n PJ. Amongst the Top 5 toughest courses to gain off the tee with only half the tee shots coming with driver. Plenty of less than driver tee shots with the forced layups and positional demands. Similarly, one of the toughest combos of driving accuracy and GIR with some of the most narrow fairways on Tour and daunting rough.
Long iron week with 50%+ of approaches coming north of 175 and all the Par 3s playing 200ish yards or more. Not going to hit as many greens this week and therefore birdies are a whore in church rare at this track. Scrambling is a must have this week with expected winds north of 15-20mph on 2 of 4 days and long rough running nearly to the fringe. Scrambling drops nearly 10% from Tour average. Very few 3-putts here but one of the more challenging courses inside 10 feet to make birdie or save par. Bad look for my friends and family plays this week but we ride with our soliders.
Winning score recently has pushed the mid-teens but plenty of years down near -10 including last year with Taylor Moore storming back on Sunday to take his maiden victory. Profile you want this week is an in-form approach player with a strong around the green game and an ability to avoid bogeys in the tough scoring conditions. Nod to my guys JT and Finau who excel in windy conditions.
Player Pool
JT – I love the pain baby. On record declaring JT as this year’s comeback story and guaranteed winner, I’m back to the well again after yet another missed cut when he’s headlining the card. Last 24 rounds, he’s 5th Approach, 6th Around the Green, 3rd on Par 5s, and 3rd T2G despite a lackluster showing last week at the PLAYERS. Owner of a 10th, 3rd, and 13th in his last 3 trips to Valspar so the shoe fits. Maybe a narrative angle but feels apropos that JT will get over the hump on a week as a short fave in a week field like we saw J Day, Spieth, and Rickie do in the last 18 months to break their drought.
Finau – Continues to flush his irons which should serve him well this week. Great wind player. Continues to struggle on the greens but everything else is still firing. Last 24 rounds, 1st in Approach, 5th on Par 5s, 1st in Opps Gained, and 4th T2G. Strong long iron player as well. Does not scramble well but if he keeps the hot iron play up that should be enough to keep him in contention.
Killa Keith – I’m going to forgive and forget whatever roofied performance he showed on the weekend at Sawgrass. Still gained off the tee and on approach even in a horrific result. Everything he’s been doing over the last month should serve him well here. Just hope we aren’t trying to breath life into a dead horse past his hay day.
Rai – Finds nearly every fairway. Leads this field in Good Drives Gained. 12th in Approach play as well. Solid around the greens player that avoids bogeys. Top 6 in both GIRs and Opps Gained. 11th in T2G. His issues have been on the greens where he’s hemorrhaging strokes weekly. Like Finau, you just hope you find the week where he can keep it together on the greens and let the rest of his game shine.
Straka – Pure numbers and pedigree play with Seppy. 2-time winner on Tour, including the Honda, along with 2 runner-ups in tough fields like the St. Jude and The Open in the past couple years. Great outright play as when he’s on he’s in contention. Not one that stacks the T20 finishes. Off a PLAYERS performance where he gained 8.4 T2G including 4.6 on Approach, we may be stumbling on some form for Sepp. Easy click in this range given his track record of contention.
Ghim – Dude keeps rolling *in the dough*. Stacked his 5th straight Top 20 over the last 2 months at THE PLAYERS where he gained in all categories which he’s done in 3 of 5 tourneys in his recent run. 1st in Par 5s despite not being a long hitter. 7th in Bogey Avoidance. 5th T2G (no surprise). Only black eye for the Ghim Reaper is that we’ve never seen him actually contend in an event on Tour owning just 1 Top 5 in his career. At 70-1, it’s easy to see why he’s still worth the click as one of the hottest players in the field.
Dahmen – Full Swing cult hero will hopefully make his return to Sunday contention this week. Coming off a staggering 13.1 strokes gained T2G at THE PLAYERS, only surpassed by Scottie and Deki, he’s back to showing a bit of form after an incredibly rough 2023. Historically, this course is perfect for Joel’s profile. Fairway finder with the potential to get hot with his irons. He’s shown to be a streaky player in the past racking up great performances in spurts so hopefully we are catching him on the upswing at a great number.
NeSmith – Massive number on NeSmith at 220 which has cratered to the low-100s as of writing. Numbers won’t pop out as he’s shown little recent form but did show some signs of life last week gaining 5.3 T2G. Notorious for spiking out of nowhere and showing up on the first page of leaderboards (7 Top 10s over the last few seasons), he’s well worth the flier in this range. A 3rd and 21st in his two trips here solidifies that decision.
OAD
With us back to a skimpy, run of the mill purse this week and just a few elites in the field to suck up win equity, I’m heading down to the 50-100 range this week to try and pick up a T10 payout with podium upside. Looking towards Rai, Ghim, and Mitchell with that mind but may consider breaking my cardinal rule of always betting my OAD by tapping Keegs who was a bubble boy on my card this week. Definitely a week to swing for the fence with a longshot as we take a breather on top end events before Augusta.
Model Results
Last 24 Rounds courtesy of Fantasy National
The Weekend Heater 
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