It’s here. We are now at the peak of the 2024 sports hype cycle. The Players were fun, Scottie is king of the nerds, congrats. We’ve blessed with dirt track action. The Masters are right around the corner. Spring is punching winter in the face…and now March Madness is about to begin. We’ve made it out of the freeze. You can feel it in down in your plums. Let’s dive into the pre-tourney breakdown.
The Favorites
#1 seeds have made it to the Final Four 39% of the time and have been featured in the big dance nearly every year, on average. It just makes mathematical sense to keep at least one team alive through the finish, regardless of who you think will actually cut down the net.
UCONN
These guys are good. Everything is screaming at me to put a stack down on them to win it all, but the groupthink and meager +400 is making me think twice. Speaking of “twice”, we’ve only seen two teams to go back-to-back post-UCLA dynasty. You could argue that we’re overdue and you would be supported by the fact that they have 60% of their roster from last season’s championship run, including Tristen Newton and Alex Karaban. Wouldn’t blame you for putting them down as your bracket champs, I may take them in one of my brackets, but don’t think a 4-1 payout has enough value with the most tumultuous tournament in college sports. Game specific: they are a great team to take the over on when matched up against slower paced teams with lower defensive ratings.
HAMMER Uconn over in R1 vs Stetson.
PURDUE
Leaning on Zach Edey is not a great strategy for tournament play. His performance is impressive, but let’s not pretend one weapon makes an army. Purdue has been on my shit list since they completely screwed me over in their 2016 first round upset loss to Little Rock (which was 1 of 4 first round upsets from Matt Painter’s organization in the past 10 years).
Boiler Down. Fade Purdue. Elimination by round: 2nd (+400), Sweet 16 (+350), Elite 8 (+325), Final 4 (+450).
HOUSTON
Houston has the magic sauce closest to Uconn, but their loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 finals exposed how vulnerable they can be to a team that is able to match their defensive skills while bringing a faster pace of play. With that being said, their offensive and defensive ratings are off the charts, and they have the depth to make deep run this year.
Would lean towards taking them at +600 over Uconn.
NORTH CAROLINA
The Tar Heels are a toss up for me. They’re slightly ahead of the pack in performance on both sides of the ball, but they lean heavily on RJ Davis for success. What draws me to them is their similarity in usage percentage to Uconn and Houston (other honorable mentions in this category are Illinois and Marquette). Bottom line is, even though RJ is their front man, they are not a one trick pony. I don’t think they’ll make it to the ship, but they’ll be fun to watch (especially their sweet sixteen match up, assuming they make it and don’t play Charleston)
No plays on UNC. Might be a mistake, but I’m just not sold on them with the deciding factor being their BPI is notably lower than a few #2-4 ranked teams, giving the books the edge.
Other Notable Heavyweights
There is some really good value left on the market, get those slips in before noon on Thursday.
ARIZONA
A Wildcat Championship run at +1400 is an interesting bet. They’re big (only one guy under 6-3), beat the field average in efficiency ratings, and have a relatively easy road to the Elite Eight. Like Huston though, they are an extreme when it comes to pace, coming in at one of the fastest teams. This can be risky in March because this tournament will chew teams that run hard up and spit them out (take a look at Bob Huggins’s record). Don’t overlook them; there’s value here.
Easy money: Straightforward path to the Elite Eight -110.
CREIGHTON and TENNESEE
When you visualize March Madness you will without a doubt imagine the ridiculous fat heads being waved around in the stands…
Side note: motion to get those things permanently removed. You’ve got hard working Americans trying to take their kids to a game, paying $12 for nachos, and then sit down behind a guy (whose glory days were pregaming in a dorm room with Popov and Genny Light before putting their jazz hands up for a free throw) blocking their view with the backside of some 19 year old’s 2D bust, ruining the experience and robbing a child of inspiration to dream of playing on the NCAA Tournament court one day.
…of the starting guard and maybe the coach. Creighton has too much talent to use those stupid floating heads. They would literally block out the sun. Scheierman, Alexander, and Kalkbrenner are averaging over 17 points per game and have built up some of the highest playing time across the field throughout the season. They will be a tough test to anyone they go up against both from a skill and stamina perspective.
The group from Rocky Top puts together a gritty game. Their biggest improvement from last year is the addition of Dalton Knecht who brought the height they needed with NBA level skills. I see parallels to Purdue, but they aren’t a cursed organization and Matt Painter isn’t at the wheel to take a hard left into oncoming traffic. Crieghton will be their biggest test, but if they pass, expect them to roll right on through to the Final Four.
I took Vols to make it to the Final Four in the fall at +700, now down to +350. With Creighton sitting at +400, go with your gut on the Midwest winner as long as it isn’t Purdue.
ILLINOIS and MARQUETTE
I really like these two programs. They both made it to their conference finals, can command the tempo of the game and, as noted in North Carolina’s section, they use a lot of their players to win games. However, IMHO the biggest strength of these two teams are their coaches. Shaka Smart and Brad Underwood are no strangers to tournament play and have the ability to keep their boys focused when things get tough.
SPGx/+: R1 Illinois & Marquette Spread + Total Under (+1187)
Chaos and Unknowns
Dark Horses
Not to be an echo chamber, but the most intriguing teams for me are McNeese, JMU, and Samford. Absolutely phenomenal coaches behind solid teams that have been built over the past few years. While these guys don’t necessarily have the strength of schedule to support a futures bet, I expect they will rise to the occasion and all come through the first round as upsetters. This goes double for Samford now that Kansas is down McCuller Jr for the tournament.
Early Rounds
Other bets to look for are unders in the first round, especially first half (leaning in on the historical edge has yet to disappoint but everyone keeps sleeping on it). This does not go for Alabama vs Charleston, that game is going to make it to the moon faster than Elon. And I’m also not going to touch the Uconn vs Stetson and Tennessee vs St. Petes totals. If either of those Cinderellas make a push early on, I’d expect the big boys to throw the hammer down on them harder than Uncle Sam on terrorists.
Venues
What can go wrong? A lot. But this year I have my eye on game times and venues.
These late tip offs are completely off the rails. Put yourself in the shoes of these college athletes…they’re going to be exhausted from a full day of nerves and a win will keep them wired until late, jacking up practice the next day. These guys are going to be fried. Just beware of these matchups:
Thursday – 9:20 PM EST: Saint Pete’s vs Tennessee, Charlotte
Thursday – 9:40 PM EST: NC State vs Texas Tech, Pittsburgh
Thursday – 9:05 PM CST: Drake vs Washington State, Omaha
Friday – 9:40 PM EST: JMU vs Wisconsin, Brooklyn
Friday – 8:55 PM CST: TCU vs Utah State, Indianapolis
A major focus of the West and Midwest regions is Salt Lake City, elevation: 4,265 feet. Every team playing there, except for Gonzaga, has been training below 1K feet. This will likely limit McNeese’s ability to put their best of the best on display when taking on a slightly more adept crew in the first round. Here is a quick look at altitude’s impact to aerobic performance:
| Altitude (feet) | General Impacts on Physical Performance |
| 1,000 | Slight decrease in maximal oxygen uptake; minimal impact overall |
| 1,500 | Increased breathing rate; subtle effects on endurance |
| 2,000 | Further reduction in VO2 max; endurance activities feel harder |
| 2,500 | Noticeable reduction in performance, especially in unacclimated individuals |
| 3,000 | Decreased aerobic capacity; increased fatigue |
| 3,500 | Increased susceptibility to dehydration and altitude sickness |
| 4,000 | More significant decrease in aerobic performance; longer recovery times |
| 4,500 | Reduced stamina and work capacity; increased heart rate |
Fun fact: Jesuits and Mormons both oppose secular education in the US….Zags take down Salt Lake City and advance to the Sweet 16 (+110)
That’s a wrap for the pre-tourney madness. Finish your brackets, prep your “out sick” emails to fire off tomorrow at 11 and Friday at 7, ice down case of cold ones, and fire up all of the screens you can access.
BOL!
The Weekend Heater 
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