Food City 500 Picks & Preview

Bristol Motor Speedway

Race Recap

We are 4 races into the 2024 cup series and we have 4 different winners so far as Christopher Bell takes the lead with 41 laps to go and holds on to win in Phoenix. Racing in the desert looked a lot better this week as we got a lot more intrigue than we did at Las Vegas. There are not a lot of cup series races here in this new NextGen package, but for a track that is historically hard to pass at, C Bell made it look easy. He started 20th during the final restart and was able to make it through the field to take the lead and eventually the checkered. He had a phenomenal car all day, but this is a deviation from the narrative. With the right setup, guys can move up a little better these days on tracks that are historically position dependent. I’m not ready to say the same other styles, like road courses, but it appears that the tighter driving intermediates may be susceptible to superior setups in this NextGen car. 

C Bell took the win after starting P13, finishing 5 seconds ahead of runner up Chris Buescher. Ty Gibbs takes 3rd, Brad Keselowski 4th, and Ryan Blaney rounds out the Top 5. BK was our top finisher in a distant 4th. Kyle Busch started in the rear and struggled all day. His car just didn’t look right. Josh Berry gained 10 spots on the day, but that was only good enough for 26th. Shake it off and keep it moving, there’s a lot of racing left.

This Week’s Race Preview

It’s Bristol Baby! And its shorty track szn as we head to Bristol Motor Speedway for the Food City 500. Also, we are getting a ‘90s throwback and I’m admittedly excited to see what the retro setup looks like on Sunday.

Track

1 mile, Paved, Offset Tri-Oval, Intermediate

Betting Intro & Stats

Back to concrete, close contact, and old school racing. Tire-wear will likely be an issue here. And if guys can avoid that, they will have to keep their cool at a track known for flaring tempers and balls to the wall racing. This is another track where the winners typically start in the Top 10. In the last 10 years, only 6 winners have come from outside the top 10. Same as last week, we have to weigh the risk/reward of getting in on the early lines. Getting in now on a guy who could qualify inside the top 10, or win from outside is great CLV. BUT, missing that gamble and we got units tied up in lame horses. Decisions, Decisions. 

Comps and everything else are a little tricky this week. For starters, Bristol is a track all on its own and there are no true comps. The only other considerations are short track history and history on concrete. Secondly, for the last 3 years, the spring race was a Dirt race. This was a COVID implement to boost attendance, but the gimmick is gone and we are back to normal. That being said, that means there are only 3 races since 2021 run on the concrete to look at for normal track history. The 3 races on dirt dont really give the insight we need. Since 2021, your 3 winners are Kyle Larson (2021), Chris Buescher (2022), and Denny Hamlin (2023). Keep in mind these are all from the fall race. Out of all active drivers, Kyle Busch has the most wins all time with 8, but his last win here was on dirt in 2022. Before that, his latest wins were when he won 3 out of 4 races from fall 2017 through spring 2019. Fun Fact, his brother Kurt won the 4th race sandwiched in there. 

Let’s take a look at some recent stats from www.driveraverages.com.

Picks

Last Week’s Recap: – 3.4U

Season Results: – 13.15U

Another week without the elusive win. It has me almost rethinking my strategy. For now, we stay the course. A 4th at Daytona, 3rd at Atlanta (less than 1/10th of a second from 1st), and another 4th at Phoenix. We’re on the doorstep.

Larson 9-2, C Bell 5-1, and Denny 11-2, lead the chalk heading into the weekend. These are the clear cut favorites for a reason. Larson and Denny both have wins a Bristol since 2021; They are 1st & 3rd in avg finish, and 1st & 2nd in driver rating, respectively. C Bell has the most laps lead at Bristol since 2021, and is Top 4 in rating at all short tracks since 2021 with 1 win and 7 Top 5 in 15 races. Do with this info what you will, I just cant give these as plays at the current lines. Maybe one of them quals in mid-teens and we can scoop a good number Sunday morning, but until then we whet the whistle with early lines.

Chalk:  William Byron 11-1  2.5U

While I like Buescher, my brain wont let me run him at 12-1. And even though I like BK again here coming off the Top 5 and with his track history, I’m not sure if last Sunday was a flash in the pan or the start of his journey to end the winless streak. Regardless, I am paying up this week for Willy B. 2nd in avg finish and 3rd in driver rating here since 2021. Similar standings at other concrete tracks. Top 6 at all short tracks since 2021, with 1 win and 6 Top 5s.

Mid-Range: Alex Bowman 45-1   0.5U

Relatively thin mid-tier again. In the 20-1 range you can get the likes of Elliott (best avg finish amongst active drivers, no win) and Logano (2x winner, but only 1 Top 20 in last 3 races). I’m going to drop a little further for a better number. Bowman has a Top 5 in the last 3. He’s top 15 in avg finish in that same time. Not the same, and not a comp, BUT Bowman is the top rated driver at Dover which is another concrete track. He has a win there recently. And he drives for Hendrick, a top 3 team at Bristol. Give me the 45.

Tingle du Jour: Noah Gragson 66-1 0.3U

As far as longshots go, I’m not too comfortable with the bottom of the board this week. This is a tough tack to win on. However, Gragson has shown some skill at the cup series level. And on top of that he has 2 wins here on the Xfinity series. That’s my tingle for the week.

Other Notables:

Martin Truex Jr 20-1 

Party Marty Truex does not have the greatest track history at Bristol. He has actually never won here. But he is an excellent short(er) track driver (albeit better in 1-milers) and a solid history at other concrete tracks. Just food for thought at this point.

DFS Strategy

Dominator points are once again king. With 500 laps available, there will be plenty of laps lead points to be had. Not that its too dissimilar from any other week, but the goal this week will be identifying the dominators and fitting them into lineups with guys who can move up or pay 5-6x based on projected finishing position. We are likely also looking at 2 Dominator builds this week as we typically see 2-3 drivers lead +/- 100 laps each.

Raise Hell Praise Dale