This week the PGA Tour gives us the “strongest field” in golf *SIKE* in Moranhan and the PV boys backyard as we hit the penultimate stop of the Florida Swing and most anticipated Tour stop left on schedule save the Majors. What was formally, and for some reason still is, referred to as the “strongest field in golf” will still pack its usual punch from a viewership appeal but will sorely miss the depth of talent that usually characterizes this week. The yearly event that once removed all the fluff of the backend of the full field majors, such as amateurs, former champs, and global qualifiers, and only invited the cream of the crop on Tour is now as severely watered down with glorified KFT players joining a struggling bunch of leftover elites on Tour. Still, any week where we get wall-to-wall drama packed with untethered access to feeds for all 145 competitors and equal parts danger and glory on every tee shot and approach is still a week to look forward to.
As for our fortunes, we are coming off a double feature, bang-bang winner across the PGA Tour and LIV Tour marking our first Tour outright of the year and second outright of the LIV season. We were absolutely boat raced by our props, most by slim margins, but the double dubs are a welcomed site. Back into the green on the year.
Pretty easy to tout a handicapping effort that results in a card with World #1 and odds on favorite but this felt clear as day. Scottie finally gained a few strokes putting with the new mallet and as every tout with a Twitter feed and podcast has predicted he won comfortably on a course that rewards tee to green play like no other.
On LIV, Ancer choked a 5 stroke lead to still prevail in a playoff again fellow outright Cam Smith and Paul Casey. Ancer once feasted on these shorter tracks in his PGA Tour days and coming off a solid LIV Jeddah performance his 35-1 number made more than enough sense in the absence of reliable data.
Let’s keep the heater going this weekend.
Last Week’s Recap: +30U
Season Results: +13.5U
Moving on to picks for this week at THE PLAYERS in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL.
Picks
Outrights
JT 25 (1.2U)
Zalatoris 30 (1U)
Matsuyama 35 (.85U)
Lowry 52 w/ 8 places (1U) – Boosted on B365
Henley 60 w/ 5 places (.5U)
Finau 70 w/ 5 places (.45U)
Bradley w/ 8 places (.25U)
Killa Keith Mitchell 110 w/ 5 places (.3U)
T20
Finau +210
Conners +210
Mitchell +300
T40
Scott +105
Mitchell +115
van Rooyen +125
Ghim +150
Carson San Diego Young +230
H2H Matchups
Thomas o Hovland
Mitchell o Jaeger Bombz
Ghim o Todd
Pavon o Hossler
WHALE PROP OF THE WEEK
Grillo Top South American -115 (DK)
All placements, matchups, and props are 1U each.
Preview
Course
TPC Sawgrass
– Par 72, 7275 yards
– Carnage, pure carnage everywhere
– Chalk will die – no one is safe here and everyone owns a clunker
– Bunkers everywhere (5th most) and water on most every hole (most on Tour) like you’re playing at the beach
– Pete Dye design so it’s like your having a bad dream on every sight line – play toward the danger as most will say this week
– Fairways tree-lined and narrowish – plenty of less than driver out here with safe layup zones – plenty of undulation on the fairways creating uneven lies – T-boned even when you hit it in the short grass sometimes
– Rough length is unpredictable – ballooning to an unmanageable 3.5 inches in 2023 from 2.5 inches most years – PGA Tour is charmin soft this year so expect it to be on the low end
– Poa Trivialis greens again like Scottsdale – pure silk and 2 Fast 2 Furious
– Electric factory finishing 3 holes where the scoreboard can flip on its head including the famed island green 17th – gutsy-est player of the week will emerge
– Czars of the Tour will control the final score based on setup and conditions – usually settling in the low to mid teens
A ton to love about this tourney and week in golf. Pivoting from what might be the most grossly mismanaged viewing experience, the Tour gets it right this week with wall to wall coverage of every group Thursday and Friday and nearly every group Saturday and Sunday. Mind boggling how the Jay and the PV Boys witness this success and then trip over themselves every other week.
This course is nearly perfect as far as regular Tour stops go for betting and viewing experience. Dye courses, Sawgrass in particular, are known to be tough but fair. If you’re stripping it way, you’re going to score. If you’re spraying and praying, break out the flip flops and water wingies cuz that’s all you’ll need where your ball is going. Most holes have a common birdie and bogey rate ranging from 8-14% aside from the 5 hardest holes having bogey rates above 20% and 5 easiest having birdie rates above 20%. Plenty of opportunity to make up ground on the leaderboard and also to give it away give it away now. Look no further than Tom Hoge who carded both a 1st Round 78 and 3rd Round 62 in last year’s installment. Range of outcomes are as wide day to day as anywhere.
This week is will be won and lost off the tee and on approach. Annually, TPC Sawgrass plays as the toughest course on Tour to gain strokes off the tee and the most difficult to gain on approach inside 150 yards where 45-50% of approaches will come this week. Nearly impossible to hit these greens from the rough where GIR% drops to 40-45% and if you do hit the green you’ll be facing a murderous lag putt on these glassy greens. Creativity will reign supreme around the greens this week where thick rough, false fronts, and tightly mown run-offs along with the heavy bunkering can *ty*wreak havoc for those missing the greens.
Strokes Gained Guts is the most important metric at Sawgrass. Every hole will challenge players with visual torture and risk/reward decisions galore. Most every elite has a missed cut or two here making the volatility as tilting for bettors as any week of the year. Any player, regardless of skill, can get things going in the wrong direction and never recover.
Betting Approach
Off the Tee – Total driving is the default answer here where distance guys will have an advantage eating up the Par 5s and taking shorter clubs to the layups. Accuracy is paramount with the rough penalty. I’ll zero in on Good Drives Gained which are tee balls that find fairways or result in a GIR.
Good Drives Gained (L24)
1. Si Woo Kim
2. Aaron Rai
3. Scottie Scheffler
4. Alex Noren
5. Corey Conners
Approach – Major key this week as resident golf pro DJ Khaled would say however also going to weight SG: Ball Striking, which combines OTT and Approach, along with Opportunities gained this week.
Approach (L24)
1. Tom Hoge
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Tony Finau
4. Corey Conners
5. Shane Lowry
SG: Ball Striking (L24)
1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Xander Schauffele
3. Tom Hoge
4. Corey Conners
5. Tony Finau
Opportunities Gained (L24)
1. Tom Hoge
2. Tony Finau
3. Scottie Scheffler
4. Chris Kirk
5. Benny An
Around the Green – Guys will inevitably be approaching these greens from the lush *lyfe* lettuce and miss the green plenty this week. Need guys who have a deft touch around the green and avoid bogeys.
Bogey Avoidance (L24)
1. Chesson Hadley
2. Alex Noren
3. Sam Burns
4. Taylor Pendrith
5. Xander Schauffele
Putting – Back on our bullshit with the Poa Trivy greens this week which some guys have taken to. Going to make that the focal point in putting this week.
SG: Putting on Poa Trivy (L24)
1. Sam Burns
2. Chad Ramey
3. Sam Ryder
4. Billy Horschel
5. Mav McNealy
Course History is pretty mid here given all the volatility I’ve outlined. JT is the only player with at least 2-3 appearances that has never missed the cut here going 8/8. Otherwise, even the elites have some complete flops here over the years. Going to once again tap into SG: Florida Man since this course epitomizes Florida golf but otherwise won’t lean much on course history. SG: Total at Floriday courses shown below. Harbour Town, TPC River Highlands, and Valspar are several of the key comps based on common Pete Dye designs (HT and TPC River Highs) or in the case of Valspar another Florida course with Poa Triv greens and plenty of hazards.
This is not a week for the less is more moniker. Your card needs some quality but having plenty of bullets in the chamber will give you the Sunday sweat you want. Longshots have not had much recent success since the move to March 5 years back but they have been around over the weekend. Wouldn’t ignore them in your card construction. I think peppering the middle of the board is the prudent move given how much the top of the board, outside of Scottie, has struggled.
Player Pool
JT – This week’s most touted golfer and for good reason. As mentioned, he’s been the most consistent and prolific golfer at TPC Sawgrass amongst those teeing it up this week. Has gained 5+ strokes T2G in 5 of 8 appearances. Gained off the tee in 7 of 8 and on approach in 6 of 8. Winner in 2021. A creative player around the greens that can get out of trouble if he finds it. He’s got all the tools to excel this week. His off the tee game while positive at Bay Hill was a bit erratic finding the water several times but if he can play from the fairway and avoid trouble he should be there. Well documented start to the season with now 4 Top 15 finishes including a 12th last week where he sat in T2 heading to the back nine Sunday before melting. Outside of Scottie, he’s playing as well as anyone towards the top of the board.
Zalatoris – He’s all the way back now baby. Coming off back to back Top 5 finishes at the Genny and Bay Hill last week. If not for a few crucial doubles on Saturday afternoon, he would have been there shot for shot with Scottie on Sunday. Putter has been positive in 3 straight and gaining his usual handful of strokes ball striking. Doesn’t own the best Sawgrass record but has a 26th and 21st while gaining 6+ strokes T2G. Over L24, he’s 7th on Approach, 6th Ball Striking, and 8th T2G. A trip to the winner’s circle feels imminent.
Matsuyama – Lotta mixed feeling about Deki in the marketplace this week. He’s a favorite of plenty and a galaxy brain fade for plenty of others. Followed up his dark horse win at the Genny last week with a 12th at Bay Hill where he was a consistent figure on the front page of the leaderboard. Gained 3 strokes on Approach to stay hot with his irons. He’s always been a mercurial type of player where he finds form out of thin air and reels off great finishes then disappears for some time. Great Sawgrass record with a 5th in 2023 and 8th in 2019 gaining 7+ T2G in both appearances. He was the first round leader in 2020 before the pandy hit and shut the world down. Thanks Gobert. Great around the green player who can avoid bogeys when he misfires on approach. Expecting another great week from Dek.
Henley – Hendawg baby we off that yik yak this week. Typically a super strong iron player, Russ bus has been a little shaky with his irons of recent but has found a piping hot putter where he was 100% at Bay Hill on putts inside 10 feet. Fairway finder aficionado and historically a very sound approach player, we expect that Russ can keep his hot flatstick going regain some of the ball striking form he’s showed over the last 12 months. Coming in with a 4th at Sony and at Bay Hill which draw similarities to Sawgrass. Russ has been a consistent performer over his career on the shorter, positional tracks and expect this week to be no different. Owns some decent recent form at Sawgrass with a 19th and 13th in his last two appearances including a staggering 11.5 strokes gained on approach in 2022 which led the field. While not an elite winner, I expect Russ to be in the mix come Sunday.
Finau – Easily the most overlooked golfer of the week coming in at 60-70 to 1 on the odds board. He skipped Bay Hill which may have him out of sight and out of mind but it would be a mistake to overlook Tony this week. Last 24 rounds, he’s 6th on Approach, 2nd Ball Striking, 2nd in Opps Gained, and 4th T2G. That is not the makeup of someone who should be coming in at 60-1 even in this field. Putter admittedly has been horrific but on these smooth greens he may be able to get right. Saw it with Scottie on a bigger scale last week. Tony has gained on the greens in 4 of 7 trips here so the mems are good on the greens at Sawgrass. Sometimes you play a bad number and trust the caliber of golfer. Tony is your guy there this week.
Killa Keith – Best value on the board north of Big Tone in my humble opinion. Few are hitting it as well as Keith over the last month or so. Last 12 rounds, he’s 8th on Approach, 4th Ball Striking, 1st in Opps Gained, 7th in Birdie or Better, and 5th T2G. Driving it masterfully with 3+ strokes gained off the tee in his last 3 tournaments including 5 gained at the Honda/Cog. A winner in 2019 at the Honda so we know he can f*** in Florida. Has gained on the greens at Sawgrass in his last 4 appearances including 5 strokes in 2023. I’m all in on Keith this week.
OAD
Massive purse this week so another big week to get it right and gain some separation in your pool. Given the volatility of this event, I would skip the very top of the board and head to a loaded middle tier which has plenty of winning upside and decent floor. Scottie would be an easy click and I wouldn’t fault anyone for doing that but even he owns a missed cut here which would be a killer in OAD. I’m going to look towards Lowry, Deki, or Zal myself and would also give strong leans to JT or Xander towards the top. Also don’t mind getting a little frisky with Conners. Probably won’t win but he’s crushing it off the tee and on approach. A lock for Top 20 and likely Top 10 finish.
Model Results
Last 24 Rounds courtesy of Fantasy National
The Weekend Heater 
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