Phoenix Raceway
Race Recap
Ho hum. Well the outcome we got was exactly what everyone expected. Kyle Larson started P2 and went out and asserted his dominance on the field all afternoon on Sunday. He led 181 of the 267 laps on his way to a clean sweep; winning both stage 1 & 2 and ultimately the race. There is something about this low downforce package on intermediates that Hendrick’s knows unlike anybody else. Not only do they consistently put Larson in the fastest car in these setups, but the second fastest car was his teammate William Byron. Byron looked like the only contender for the early part of the race but some pit road issues set him back and he wasn’t able to recover. It wasn’t until a late charge by Tyler Reddick of 23XI that we got some intrigue. With about 3 to go Reddick actually caught up to the back bumper of Larson and tried to make his move, Larson blocked it, and that was all she wrote.
After the fireworks and excitement we got at Atlanta last week, this was a slip back into some of the tamer racing we will get from time to time throughout the season. Larson winning and leading laps from P2 is a reminder of the importance of track position at Las Vegas. Speaking of track position, Logano was in the playbook and won the pole. He had the fastest qualifying on Saturday, ran a decent practice, and then came out as flat as you can on Sunday. Not sure what happened with the car overnight but it was not the same car he had on Saturday. I believe Jamie Little even quoted him during the race telling his crew the car was driving like a dump truck. I thought we had some insane early value at 15-1, turns out that 15 was a steaming pile. At the end of the day, our list of losers came in Logano 9th, Stenhouse 17th, Bowman 18th. Ouchiewawa.
Just a quick note on a few other drivers that continue to look good, even if the results aren’t there yet. Lajoie looked solid again before a small hiccup towards the end of the race. Gilliland looked strong again this week also. Carson Hocevar looked strong here as he has at other races this year, the rookie could contend soon. Speaking of young drivers that will win soon. Ty Gibbs finished 5th. It’s only a matter of time before he gets to victory lane.
This Week’s Race Preview
We’re in Avondale, AZ at Phoenix Raceway for the Shriner’s Children’s 500. Kyle Larson is going to shoehorn in a round at Grayhawk and a private table at Dierks Bentley Whiskey Row with the ASU sorority girls before the race. Gotta celebrate the win in style. Probably not, but I’d like to imagine he will.
We have seen a little more parity on victory lane here compared the other tracks so far this season. William Byron is your spring race defending champ, and Ross Chastain has the most recent win from the fall race. The only active driver with multiple wins here is Kyle Bush when he went back to back in 2018/2019 in the fall/spring races. The only other driver in the last 10 years with multiple wins is Kevin Harvick with 5 (and 9 all time), but his performance on Sunday will be limited to keeping Clint Bowyer from going full Tony Romo.
Track
1 mile, Paved, Offset Tri-Oval, Intermediate
Betting Intro & Stats
First, you may notice there are only 312 laps for this race, that is because the number is kilometers this week, hence 312 1-mile laps = 500 KM. Second, this is another track where starting position and overall track position is important. Historically, winners typically start within P10. Moving up in the field is much harder here than the first 3 tracks we have run. Lapped traffic will eventually be an issue as guys towards the back will end up off the lead lap. All that being said, we are in another scenario where pre-qual bets are just a best guess and a chance to grab value.
Given the fact that the *majority* of winners here start inside the top 10, it kinda defeats the purpose to hammer these early lines with no indication of where guys will start the race on Sunday. But honestly, that’s for the birds. We don’t have time to play things safe. We need to rack up wins and pull in some units. There’s value to be had now, so let’s get it now. Comps for this week are New Hampshire and Richmond where similar track size, layout, and race scripts unfold. Now I’ll show you how to use these comp tracks to pick absolute LOSER plays.
Let’s take a look at some recent stats from www.driveraverages.com.
Picks
Last Week’s Recap: – 3.5U
Season Results: – 9.75U
It’s been a bloodbath out here to start the season. We’ve been so close on a few different occasions and yet, the desired outcome eludes us. It’s getting into the nitty gritty of the season now and providing a value play is going to remain difficult. I called Larson as the winner last week. As did every other tout, talking head, psuedo-capper, and part time NASCAR fan on the internets. But I could not in good conscience give a 4-1 play. Well, I guess I could have because that was a close to a mortal lock as you will see all year. S happens, here’s this weeks donations.
Chalk: Kyle Busch 12-1 (DK) 2U
Per my own rules: Larson, Blaney, Byron, Hamlin, & Chastain are automatic no-go’s. Besides that, everyone 20-1 and under is in consideration this week, but we have to find the value. I like so many of the guys in this range but F it, I’m going back to the well. Busch has the 3 total wins including the back to backs, 12 top 5s, the most Laps Lead of active drivers, and the 2nd best driver rating besides Chase Elliott.
Mid-Range: Brad Keselowski 25-1 (Bet 365) 1U
Another week, another slim roster for the mid-range play. This will be a recurring theme. 20-1 for Briscoe and Buescher is just crazy. Briscoe is fine, but not the greatest and just because his 1 career wins is here that’s still an absurd number. At BK have it your way. Kes has 8 top 5s all time, 2 of which were 2nd place finishes. He doesn’t have a win here, shit he doesn’t have a win in over 100 races. I’m playing track history and the due theory. Just give me the 25 and get me out of here.
Tingle du Jour: Josh Berry 80-1 (Bet 365) 0.3U
This is probably going to be a popular play this week, but who cares. Josh Berry has 1 career start at Phoenix as a fill in for Chase Elliott. In that race he started 17, looked like he might be in contention to Top 5 for a good bit, and ultimately finished 10th. He looked strong here, gained some Cup Series confidence here, and while he hasn’t always looked great he has had some solid runs lately. Crazy things can happen, and this might just be crazy enough.
Other Notables:
Austin Dillon 100-1
DFS Strategy
Last Week – Entered: $-42 , Won: $31
Season Winnings: $44
As I mentioned earlier, track position is king. This is not the track to target back markers or guys in the back of the pack. Unless there are early cautions you can expect many of those guys to fall off the leap lap fairly quickly. The only exception is a top tier driver in good equipment that just qualifies poorly. If you can find someone in good equipment that has potential to regain, you can get your PD there, but otherwise you’re going to want talent over potential PD upside. Ideally, your lowest finishing driver is in the top 20. Again, Dominator points are the bread and butter here. 312 laps is plenty to rack up points and those are what you’ll need to finish well. Nailing the Dominator(s) is step 1, step 2 is getting 6/6 across on the lead lap. All 6 inside the top 20 is guaranteed cash.
Raise Hell Praise Dale
The Weekend Heater 
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