Arnie Palmer alert. Sweetie this one’s got the the vodky. RIPIP to the man Arnie P. All world golfer and better guy. In his honor, we will find ourselves a winna winna chicken dinna this week. Love this event personally. Disaster looms all over. Water everywhere. Hackin out tall rough. Disney World. What is there not to love. What is the last of the tough PGA Tour stops after Moronahan and the Ponta Vedra boys got charmin soft we should be in for a good one. We only get 69 golfers and another no-cut LIV style event however I’m hopeful we get a Sunday with the leftover stars and not a battle of Harry English and Tom Hoge.
Speaking of charmin soft, pure gutless performance by Big Shane on Sunday / Monday at the Honda. Seriously dude, while Austin Cockroat and Min Boo were making a mockery of the course Shane is spraying and praying like he’s blacked out at a Top Golf. Unreal choke job. Once again, Cam Young continues his brand of 3 great rounds and one clunker to never really be in contention. Sammy Ryder Die kills a juicy T20 with a bogey on the 72nd hole to finish T21. Just a swift kick below the belt.
Bryson went full Cam Young bookending an egregious 73 with a 62 and 63 to finish 5 shots off Joaco Niemann’s pace. All in all, we net out for the week across the two tours. We aren’t far off from a heater. Stay the course.
Super late this week so keeping it very short.
Last Week’s Recap: 0.0U
Season Results: -16.5U
Moving on to picks for this week at the Arnie Palmer Invite in Orlando, FL.
Picks
Outrights
Scottie 11. 5 w/ 3 places (2.6U)
Hovland 19 (1.6U)
JT 35 (.85U)
T10
Aberg +180
Cam Young +220
T20
Fitzpatrick +100
English +125
Kirk +140
Bradley +140
H2H Matchups
Young o Burns
Aberg o Homa
Fitzpatrick o Burns (2U)
Min Boo Lee o Benny An (2U)
Spieth o Morikawa (2U)
WHALE PROP OF THE WEEK
Conners Top Canadian +210
All placements, matchups, and props are 1U each.
Preview
Course
Bay Hill Club and Lodge
– Par 72, 7466 yards
– Firm and fast conditions T2G, flat landscape
– Par 3s and 4s play Top 5 hardest on Tour – must score on the Par 5s
– Unlike Honda last week, this SHOULD continue to play tough – hardest non-major course of the season
– T2G test through and through – nowhere to hide until you get on the green
– Narrow fairways but do widen considerably for those who can bomb it 300+ with regularity
– Top 5 in Approach difficulty over 150 yards where nearly 60% of approaches will come (30% over 200 yards)
– Top 5 hardest greens to hit on Tour (60% GIR rate – 6% below average)
– Rough is normally 3 inches and sticky
– Plenty of water and bunkers creating Top 5 in penalty strokes on Tour – no shortage of bogeys this week
This should be the week that we see the cream truly rise to the top of a PGA Tour event. Perennially an event with a single digit winner so does a good job separating the elite ball strikers from the mediocre players who can get hot for a week. You cannot have a weakeness in your game this week or you’ll sink like a rock on the leaderboard. Will see plenty of guys scrambling from 50-75 yards after wayward drives with the difficulty in advancing the ball out of this rough.
Another signature event with 69 players in the field. No cut. Have some rando jabronis in the mix but since those are just the guys who keep winning you may not want to dismiss them. I will be. I’m going to keep hammering the top of the board in these fields in hopes that we finally see some regression to the mean especially in the toughest non-Major conditions we will see this year.
Betting Approach
Off the Tee – Elite driving week. Predominant skillset that translates to the first page of the leaderboard year in and year out. One of the hardest courses to gain strokes OTT. Distance as mentioned is a big advantage for finding fairways given the width as distance from the tee heads over 300+. Narrow path to victory if you aren’t an above average driver. Carry distance will be big this week.
Approach – One of the hardest courses approach over or under 150 yards. All in all this hard AF. Limited scoring opportunities on this course so those that can get the irons firing will find ways to make up for the inevitable bogey or cure the putting woes like Scottie.
Around the Green – Not overly challenging around the green but have to be consistent this week. Guys are going to miss fairways no matter what and when they do finding the greens will be tough. Chipping will be part of the path to victory however chipping from heavier rough doesn’t appear to present a massive challenge. Scrambling percentage is on par with Tour average.
Putting – More grainy Bermuda greens this week. They are pretty large and run faster than average. Landscape is flat so the greens are necessarily incredibly tough. Plenty of par saves inbound this week between avoiding 3-putts on large greens or scrambling from greenside.
Course History is top 5 stickiest on Tour though before last year this event didn’t always pull the strongest fields. Plenty of top tier guys playing this for the 2nd or 3rd time. Florida form and history is still in play this week.
Top 30 in Strokes Gained at Florida Courses:
Top 30 in Strokes Gained Total at Bay Hill:
Player Pool
Scheffler – I’m going there this week. First in my model by a longshot. Shouldn’t be a shock to read that. 1st in Approach and Ball Striking, 2nd OTT, 1st in Opps Gained and GIRs, and Top 20 in proximity buckets over 150 yards. Can’t putt still but if there was ever a place to mitigate the impacts of that it’s here at API when scoring will mostly held at bay. Winner in 2022, 4th last year, and 15th in his debut in 2020. Gaining 9+ strokes T2G in all 3 appearances. One week it’s going to click.
Hovland – 2024 form has been pretty weak by his standards off a big 2023. We used this same approach back at Genesis hoping for a get right spot and failed. We will head back to the well once more. Elite driver and long iron player. 3rd in field OTT, 1st in long Par 4s (450-500), 6th in Ball Striking, and Top 20 in both Opps Gained and Bogey Avoidance. Great history here. 5/5 in made cuts. Gained T2G in all 5 appearances. 10th last year and 2nd in 2022. Great number play for an elite talent and course fit.
Thomas – Big numbers play here. Burned the golf gambling world at Genesis where he went off closer to 20-1 in a similar field. We now get a 35-1. Fine to forgive and forget his Genny performance since he played with his Dad (Tiger) and always plays scared in his presence. Finished 21st here last year in his 2nd performance at the API and 1st since 2015. He entered Sunday, though, in the Top 5 before shooting 74 and dropping down the board.
OAD
Play Rory or Scottie. Big purse this week. Small field event where elites should rise to the top. Rather use them now where they can really separate themselves from the field and we avoid a full field or Major caliber field. Could also run out Fitz or Aberg as well to get different. Wouldn’t do it.
Model Results
Last 24 Rounds courtesy of Fantasy National
The Weekend Heater 
Leave a comment