Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube Picks & Preview

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Race Recap

Definitely a race to remember. Absolute Madness to end a race that lived up to the hype. The reconfiguration and repaving of Atlanta was meant to take a track already championed by the drivers and turn it into a more exciting experience for the fans and viewers. Well, I think it’s safe to say that they succeeded. The first wreck and caution came out on Lap 2 and it was mayhem the rest of the afternoon. There was mass carnage throughout the 9 cautions in Sunday’s race leaving only a handful of clean cars by the end of the day. A record number of lead changes for Atlanta. And to top it all off, the 3rd narrowest margin of Victory in NASCAR history. One of the craziest finishes you will ever see, Daniel Suarez wins by 0.003 seconds over Ryan Blaney and 0.007 seconds over Kyle Busch. 

Heartbreak City population me. We had the best chance of the season to take down a dub and missed out by a fraction of a fraction of a second. After 259 laps of crazy racing and multiple cautions, the boys were three-wide coming home towards the checkered. Blaney, Busch, and Suarez all neck and neck for the last straight away in a full out drag race. In real time, I thought Blaney held on, but during the replay you can see Daniel Suarez cross the line first. Would have been a sweet hit if I had the stones to play him over Ricky Stenhouse in the mid-range tier. Suarez has proven his prowess at this track, which coincidentally will be the first race of the playoffs that he likely secured his spot in with this win. The stats on him looked good, the number was palatable, but I zigged when I should have zagged and took Stenhouse as the official play. Rough.

Back tracking a bit, Todd Gilliland looked like a man possessed for a large portion of the race, leading the most laps in the field. Ultimately, some untimely mistakes and an unfortunate pit put the ToddFather back into around 20th where he eventually got tagged a bit in the final wreck of the race, he finished 26th. Busch and Stenhouse both went a lap down in Stage 2 after the dreaded pit road speeding penalty. Extra costly at Atlanta based on both the pit road speed limit and the length of pit road. Kyle Busch later would get the free pass on 8th caution of the race. Nearing the end of stage 3 we actually had all 3 drivers inside the top 10 for a moment, after the 9th caution came out that changed. When it was all said and done Daniel Suarez was the race winner; Kyle Busch 3rd, Ricky Stenhouse 6th, Gilliland 26th.

This Week’s Race Preview

We’re heading west to Sin City and the Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube. Try not to blow your load on the Strip before we tear up some rubber in the desert. This is the first of two back to back races in the desert (Phoenix next week) before we troll around Texas and the East coast. We won’t be back out west until the second week of June. FWIW, this is Kyle Busch’s Home Track, was I a week early on him? Time will tell. 

Hendrick Motorsports owns the last three wins at the Pennzoil 400 with Willy B last year, Alex Bowman in 2022, and Kyle Larson in 2021. Kyle Larson is also the 2023 winner of the South Point 400 at Las Vegas from the fall race. Another notable, Joey Logano has wins from the 2022 South Point, as well as the 2019 and 2020 Pennzoil.

Track

1.5 mile, Paved, D-Oval, Intermediate

Betting Intro & Stats

Track position is important here, which makes pre-qual bets a little more challenging since we don’t know where guys will start. I am going to try to find some value early on some guys I think will qualify well, but there’s no way to know for sure. If I were smart, I would tell you to wait to donate your hard earned money until AFTER qualifying and the starting positions are set, but I’m a degen so I’m shooting from the hip early. Besides, lines will be god awful after qualifying and I like the added risk/reward of early numbers. Will it bite me in the ass? Absolutely. Do I care? Absolutely not.

A few items of note. First, Vegas has 20 degrees of progressive banking in the turns, but is not necessarily a high tire-wear track. This should eliminate at least one level of complexity for pit strategy as guys can expect to get full life out of their tires. Second, the only 1:1 comp for Vegas is Kansas, so I will only be considering Vegas and Kansas for the stats this week. 
Let’s take a look at some recent stats from www.driveraverages.com.

Picks

Last Week’s Recap: -3.05U

Season Results: – 6.25U

The only additions to the Vegas & Kansas history I will be considering for the plays is recent form and history racing in the desert. Kyle Larson is the heaviest of favorites this weekend, unsurprisingly. He dominates out west, has multiple recent wins at Las Vegas, and has the most Intermediate track wins of active drivers since 2021, with a total of 8. I like his chances to win this week, but he is way too chalky to give as a play. I will find some better value at the top of the board, but we will need some good fortune to find another driver besides Larson in Victory Lane on Sunday.

Chalk:  Joey Logano 15-1 (DK)  2U

We cant get to Larson at 4-1, way too chalky. I like Kyle Busch at 10-1 as well, but more based on current form than historicals. Busch only has 1 win at intermediates in the last 30 races but he has looked good at both Daytona and Atlanta. I’m dropping down the board for value with Joey Logano at 15-1. He has a recent Vegas Win, and 3 wins here all time. He’s also top 10 in active drivers since 2021 at Intermediates with 2 wins in those last 30. If we’re lucky enough to have someone other than Larson win, I’ll take the juice with Logano.

Mid-Range: Alex Bowman 22-1 (DK)  1.3U

This range is absolute dregs again. I typically like to consider mid-range plays anywhere from 20-1 to 60-1. This week, there are only 4 drivers that meet that criteria. 22 is a bit of a premium, but Bowman at least has a recent win here. I want to like Erik Jones as his last win came on an intermediate, but 45-1 doesn’t feel long enough for a dice roll. Also, Ty Gibbs could show up any week, but he’s 28-1 again and I don’t think the win equity is there. I’m not saying fade me (yet), but I would understand skipping this tier altogether this week.

Tingle du Jour: Ricky Stenhouse Jr 150-1 (DK)  0.2U

We are officially in absolute bomb territory for the first time this season. I briefly considered Gilliland at a staggering 250-1, before I came to my senses. Truth be told I will pay the troll toll at that number because I refuse to miss his first win. Then I teetered between Lajoie, and Stenhouse at 150. Just based on win-equity alone, I’ll give the nod to Stenhouse (even though guys that know me know how bad I want to trot out The ToddFather every week). “Pedigree” (no disrespect) aside, Stenhouse cracks the top 25 in Vegas recent, top 20 Vegas all time, and Top 25 in Intermediates for active drivers. No wins, but he’s looked good enough for a dart throw at this number.

Other Notables:

John Hunter Nemechek 100-1

Corey Lajoie  150-1

DFS Strategy

Last Week – Entered: $-32, Won: $87

Season Winnings: $55

Ok I am not going to harp on Bankroll Management this week, I still think it is a good idea until we get through CoTA, but I digress. This week we can expect a two Dominator build to get into the money. With the importance of track position, we are going to need to get guys who will Lead Laps and score Fastest Laps. Your main targets for Dominators are going to be guys starting somewhere between P1-6. The second dominator may or may not come from that same tier. You are also going to need to get guys who can move up, but PD is a little harder to come by here than we have seen in the last two weeks. That is not to say they cannot be had, but you’re going to need the Dominators more than the optimal PD plays. Definitely a race where you are going to need 5-6x from all 6 guys to take down a contest.

Raise Hell Praise Dale