We’ve finally made it to the real meat of the PGA Tour schedule with the the circuit heading to South Florida for the first stop of the Florida Swing. What will always be the Honda Classic to anyone who has ever heard of this tournament has made the bizarro world title sponsor shift to Cognizant as Honda ends its run as the longest title sponsor on Tour. Hits keep on coming. Good news, we get the same memorable PGA National course which gives us one of the sternest tests outside of the major championships each year.
It’s been a forgettable stretch on the West Coast for the Tour and our outright card but we’ve harped on that for too long and it’s hard to find new words. I’ll say this for the PGA Tour, the winners have run the gamut of randomness. This week’s flavor was journeyman rookie Cali bro, Jake Knapp, who has become niche famous in the already niche golf community for his massive power generated by a silky smooth swing.
I’m conflicted because on one hand I considered taking a Knapp but couldn’t get to his 40-1 number and on the other hand the “don’t sleep on Knapp” or “don’t Knapp on Jake”s that inundated my timeline led me to loath his triumph. Add in the question of how seriously can you take yourself for betting a guy in his 3rd start at that low of a number. Nothing makes sense. Win is a win. Hat tip to those that pulled the trigger.
Andy Doback was on the periphery but otherwise Jakey ran away with this bad boy. A net positive week eluded us with Cam Champ’s par on hole 72 to finish T21, however the rest of the placements and H2Hs carried us to a small loss on the overall card. We press on. Treading water until we can get back to the winning ways of recent years. Long szn.
Last Week’s Recap: -2.25U
Season Results: -16.5U
Moving on to picks for this week at the Honda Classic in Palm Beach Gardens, FL.
Picks
Outrights
Cam Young 26 (1.15U)
Cole World 35 (.85U)
Big Shane 40 (.75U)
Benny An 45 (.7U)
Killa Keith Mitchell 50 (.6U)
Adam Sevey 60 (.5U)
Teach Me How 2 Dougie Ghim 85 (.35U)
Andy Doback 185 (.15U)
Sammy Ryder Die 225 (.15U)
T20
Big Shane +170
Killa Keith +175
Adam Sevey +200
Sea Bez +225
T40
Carson San Diego Young +175
Sammy Ryde or Die +175
Sammy Ryder Die +550
H2H Matchups
Lowry o Sungbae Im
Benny An o Postman
Kirk o Min Boo Lee
Straka o Hossler
WHALE PROP OF THE WEEK
Noren Top Scandinavian +325
All placements, matchups, and props are 1U each.
Preview
Course
PGA National
– Par 71, 7147 yard
– Previously the standard Par 70 setup but they’ve now made the difficult Par 4 10th into a short Par 5. Par 5s are easy and a must get for contenders. Very tough Par 3s. Keep the head above water.
– Course plays more than a stroke over par on average which ranks as the hardest on Tour behind only Augusta
– Forced layups and doglegs galore yet not a plodders course historically. Plenty of elite drivers pepper the former champions list.
– Water on 15 holes including 11 drives and 8 approaches which results in 300+ balls taking a dip each year. Most on Tour by a wide margin.
– Tons of bogeys to be had and the most doubles on Tour.
– Bear Trap will be heard maybe 300 times this weekend which is the 3 hole stretch of 15, 16, and 17 that will be front and center for collapses all week. The 5, 6, and 7 stretch is no slouch as well which all play to an average score over par
– Greens are grainy Bermuda which is the standard in Florida. Big greens and reasonably fast. Not very complex, so if you can hit the greens in reg you’ll be fine though they are hit at 60% which is well below Tour average.
How many more ways can I say this place will eat your lunch and there’s an ejection looming around every corner.
All bashing aside this is the best field this tournament has seen in recent memory, and mashed up with what continues to be a course that brings Sunday drama without fail and we’ve got a good week on hand. Rory is back here for the first time since 2018 which has brought with it some changes to the course along with the new name. In addition to the aforementioned Par 5 creation, the fairways are rumored to be wider than any year since 2018….when Rory last graced our presence in Palm Beach Gardens.
The Tour’s resident boy scout continues to get self-serving changes by his legal guardian, Jay Moronahan. Good news is DILLIGAF about Rory here. Nah we riding with our stable of losers including some of which that will benefit from the Rory-proofing of the course.
Name of the game at this course is keeping your ball dry as long as possible. Not profound whatsoever for a Florida course, but if you remove the water this course loses a ton of its teeth. The fairways were slightly more narrow than average prior to being widened and with the added short grass they become middle of the row. All the forced layups and doglegs reduce the danger of spraying the big stick and if you are a big hitter you can put a reliable iron in your hand over spinning a wood. Unfortunately, the water is everywhere and will haunt guys dreams each night before the PJ is scrambled on Friday evening. The only thing more certain than ejections by guys you didn’t expect is the overuse of this gif on Twitter all weekend.
If your guys can avoid dunking it with regularity, there are some low scores to be had on this course. Kirk carded a Friday 62 last year on his way to a title, Cole shot mid-60s all 4 days in his runner-up performance, and the *luke* list goes on. The massive array of outcomes where a guy can as easily shoot 75 as he can 65 creates plenty of intrigue and anxiety on the Sunday leaderboard. No one is safe. Wind can be a factor being near the coast, but as of this writing the wind looks to dip into the low teens Friday and Saturday and otherwise doesn’t appear to be a huge factor. Winning score typically hovers around -10 however with the course changes and docile weather conditions I expect this will push to the upper teens in order to lift the trophy on Sunday.
We can point to other shorter, coastal tracks like Sea Island for the RSM Classic and Harbour Town for the RBC Heritage for a view into how guys perform on similar forced layup, Par 70s. Instead, the better move is to simply look at how guys fare in each year in the Florida Swing. Every year we see guys suddenly gain form out of thin air and start flushing as soon as they start rubbing shoulders with the leathery retirees and get a taste of freedom in the heaven that is South Florida.
Here are the Top 30 players in Strokes Gained Total on Florida courses.
Betting Approach
Off the Tee – Two schools of thought OTT this week. 1) Grab the bombers who will layup with a more accurate long iron and position themselves to eat up the Par 5s or 2) Target fairway finders who will give themselves a chance on approach all week. I’m going to go with a mix of both but if faced with a slim card I’d side with the bomber profile. Driving accuracy is lower than average here and coupled the length of the approaches, playing from the rough will have you playing from behind early and often. Rest of the stat categories don’t mean anything if your guy can’t survive off the tee. Won’t win with the tee ball but you can sink your chances.
Approach – Another week of long irons with nearly 80% of approaches coming from 125+ including 50% from 150-200 yards. Wedge play is non-existent. I’m going to emphasize SG: Approach, Opportunities Gained, and GIRs Gained bigly this week. Given the simplicity of these green complexes, if you can hit these greens then you’ll have plenty of stress-free pars to keep your scorecard primed to capitalize on the few scoring chances offered.
Around the Green – Plenty of guys find their way to the top of the leaderboard without gaining ARG, however there will be some clutch up and downs to keep the scorecard clean and stay in striking distance on Sunday.
Putting – Bermuda doesn’t present the objective challenge that Poa does, but there’s a Bermuda cult on Tour and you’re usually in good hands following the trend of guys who tend to putt well when headed to the Sunshine state.
Not going to put a ton into Course History this week beyond targeting a couple guys who both have a strong track record here and Florida in general. Just have to be ready for the ejection regardless of strong history here. You’re a couple water balls from launching your chances into the sun. As for the betting pool, if it’s not obvious already skip the boy scout. A reasonable odds board this week gives us a bunch of good options between 30-60 that you can pepper. Always a course to sprinkle a longshot or two given the volatility we see here every year and frankly that’s what’s in this year. Better to spray and pray on this board with plenty of bullets.
Player Pool
Cam Young – If there is anything I love in these golf betting streets, it is losing my mf’n bag on Cam Young. Been chasing this white unicorn dub for a couple years now. What better place to hop back on this runaway train than the Waterworld that is PGA National. Jokes aside, Cam owns a 16th in his only appearance here in 2022. 2 Top 15 finishes at Bay Hill which is another challenging Florida test. Stats won’t pop out at you on the surface but he consistently pops at courses which are hard to gain OTT and has several strong finishes on Par 70 tracks including a 3rd at the RBC Heritage in 2022. Coming off a 16th at Genesis and 8th in Phoenix where he gained 4 strokes OTT at each and gained on approach at both including 3.7 at Genesis (another long iron test). While he’s shown that he’s more of a big game contender and persistent loser, we will fire here at what is a palatable number in a field where his skillset is in the top tier.
Cole World – Speaking of a money pit, Cole has been a sieve for our bank account in the last calendar year. Since his runner-up finish at the 2023 Honda, Cole World’s name is pushing double digits for appearances on our outright card. We will saddle up for another spin on the merry go round. 5th on Approach. 3rd in SG: Par 4s. 4th in 175-200 yard proximity. 5th in SG: Putting and known Bermuda cult leader. He’s been nothing short of a model of consistency to start 2024 4 Top 15 finishes. Hasn’t yet found his name on the first page of the leaderboard on Sunday but why not here where the Florida native has unfinished business.
Big Shane – Continuing with the revenge tour narrative, Big Shane Lowry is back to try and once again avenge his collapse in 2022 where he melted in a little rain on the 18th with a chance to win. Shane tends to elevate his game when the Tour hits Florida. 3rd in SG:Total on Florida courses. Mediocre outputs to start his 2024 but at this point his consistent outputs at these courses *donald* trump his incoming form. We get a palatable number of 40-1 in this field when in recent years he was in the upper teens.
Benny An – Chalk du jour for this tourney. Thankfully we jumped on a great 45-1 because Benny boy has cratered to the upper 20s where you’d have to be three sheets to the wind to fire real dollars at him. As long-term lovable loser, you have to hold your nose a bit to back Benny in the outright market but his form is great and course history here. 2nd at Sentry and 4th at Sony to start the year. Sony has proven to be somewhat of an indicator of success here as well. 16th last time out at Genesis gaining 7.1 T2G. Owner of a 4th and 5th at Honda in 2020 and 2018. 21st here last year gaining 4 strokes on Approach. Expect Benny An to be in the mix come Sunday.
Killa Keith Mitchell – Guaranteed heartbreaker here. Former winner of the Honda Classic in 2019 and one of the hottest golfers in this field coming in. Over his last 12 rounds, he’s 7th in Approach, 1st in Ball Striking, 2nd in Opps Gained, and 1st in GIRs Gained. If his ball striking continues this week as back on greens where he’s had ample success then we are in for a Sunday sweat for Keith. Coming off an eye popping performance of 8.1 strokes gained on Approach, we surely hope Cashmere Keith is dialed in. He’s gained strokes on the greens in all 5 of his performances at the Honda Classic including nearly 5 strokes putting in his last appearance in 2022 on his way to a 9th place finish.
Adam Sevey – Short, coastal course specialist. Winner at the 2022 RSM Classic which rivals some of the conditions guys will see this week. Comes into this week in great form. 4th in my model over the last 24 rounds including 2nd in Ball Striking, 2nd in 175-200 yard proximity, 9th in Opps Gained, and 3rd T2G. All things that should set him up for a great week. 10th his last time out at Genesis including gaining 7 strokes T2G. Has made the cut here in all 3 appearances including a 9th in 2022 where he gained 11 strokes T2G which was more than enough to win. Great number at 60-1.
Andy Doback – Ride the hot hand here which means he will ultimately fall back to earth. Off back to back 8th place finishes between Phoenix and Mexico, Doback hot fiya right now especially on Approach where he’s gained 5+ in both starts. Ho hum performances in his 3 trips here but did gain 6 strokes on the greens in 2023. If he can keep the irons hot and keep the magic going on these greens that he may have found last year and our boy should make another run up the leaderboard. At 185-1 it’s well worth a sprinkle.
Sammy Ryder Die – I’ve been an absolute simp to betting on Sammy Ryder Die over the last month. I’ve got tunnel vision right now on his long term form. Over the last 24 rounds, he comes in 5th in my model including 2nd on Approach, 9th 150-175 yards proximity, 8th 175-200 yards proximity, and 10th in Good Drives Gained (drives that result in a GIR or land in the fairway). His approach game has vastly improved over the last few months including his long iron play. At 225-1, I’m willing to dismiss his last few starts at Genesis and and Phoenix where he MCed and go with his longer term form that is closer to someone priced inside 100-1. Throw in a 9th and 8th in his last 2 appearances here where he gained in all categories and I think you’ve got great value in Sammy Rydes.
OAD
Given the volatility of this tournament and the average purse size, this is a week to head down the board a bit and take a shot on someone who has less future value. Rory, Cam Young, Fitz, and Tom Kim will have plenty of future value in bigger purse fields. I’m going to hitch my wagon to Benny An, Big Shane, or Killa Keith. Other considerations would be Russell Hendawg, Sepp Straka, or Chris Kirk.
Model Results
Last 24 Rounds courtesy of Fantasy National
The Weekend Heater 
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