Ambetter Health 400 Picks & Preview

ITS RACEDAY!

Race Recap

Wild ending to Daytona as expected. William Byron gets the win after The Big One finally hits with 9 laps to go. It started in the front of the pack and took out Ross Chastain who had been holding the lead. First off, big ups to the iRacing Kid (if you haven’t watched any of Full Speed on Netflix, I recommend – the first episode as it gives background to Willy B). The man is unstoppable, continuing his hot streak from 2023 where he had 6 overall Wins, as he takes down The Great American Race in epic fashion. 

The Big One ended the day for the majority of the 30 lead-lap cars with 23 drivers being involved, including our Chalk Play Ryan Blaney. Blaney was understandably beyond frustrated after getting wrecked in the duels and being forced to run the race in a backup car. Even in the backup equipment he ran incredibly well, winning stage 2, and putting himself in contention late. [Small side note: he appeared to injure his hand/wrist in the crash and has since said he is “physically fine” but something to keep an eye on]. Tyler Reddick who also ran well at times, but wasn’t in contention towards the end, got taken out in the wreck as well. Leaving our long shot, Corey Lajoie, as the only play to make it across the finish line; he finished 4th. Lajoie now has three top 10 finishes at Daytona, all of them are 4th place finishes. He ended up being the Darkhorse play for a lot of the talking heads leading up to the race, but NostraDumbass posted it first. I have to believe Lajoie finds himself in the Winner’s Circle at some point this year. 

This Week’s Race Preview

Welcome to Atlanta where the players play! We are at Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Ambetter Health 400. Joey Logano is the defending Ambetter 400 champ from the 2023 spring race. William Byron took down a weather shortened July race for the second tour of Atlanta 2023. Both drivers looked good on Monday with Logano leading a career high in laps at Daytona, and Byron being the Champion when the smoke settled. And a fun fact, if you have seen Logan Lucky, Atlanta was used during filming as a stand-in for Charlotte Motor Speedway for some scenes. 

Track

1.54 mile, Paved, Quad-Oval, Intermediate

Betting Intro & Stats

Atlanta is weird. It has all of the trappings of another plate race like we are used to at Daytona and Talladega, except it’s an Intermediate track. [Even though they do not use restrictor plates anymore, I will still refer to these types of races as “plate style” races. Just know it’s a package configuration and not actually an added restrictor plate like back in the day]. This changes things and it doesn’t. I’m still sticking to a bankroll management approach until we get to more favorable betting tracks later in the season. The first 4-6 weeks of the NASCAR schedule are the most difficult. They are full of uncertainty, wrecks, and bad beats. But that is not going to stop us from diving into some statistics and trying to ferret out that first win of the season. Let’s take a look at some recent stats from www.driveraverages.com. 

Driver Averages at Atlanta in Recent Races (since Feb 2021)
Driver ▾	AvgFinish	Races	Wins	Top5’s	Top10’s	Top20’s	LapsLed	AvgStart	BestFinish	LowFinish	DNF	AvgRating
Ryan Blaney	7.3	6	1	3	5	6	67	6.3	1	17	0	110
A.J. Allmendinger	9.5	2	0	1	1	2	6	24.5	3	16	0	86.9
Matt DiBenedetto	10	2	0	0	1	2	0	16	9	11	0	90.6
Kyle Busch	12.5	6	0	3	4	5	119	13.8	2	33	1	88
Brad Keselowski	12.7	6	0	1	3	5	66	14.7	2	28	0	81.6
Chase Elliott	13	5	1	1	3	4	138	7.2	1	38	1	95.7
Martin Truex Jr.	13.2	6	0	1	3	5	37	14.5	3	29	0	88.6
Erik Jones	14.2	6	0	1	2	4	10	24.2	4	24	0	68.5
Joey Logano	14.5	6	1	1	2	5	163	6.3	1	26	0	92.7
Ross Chastain	14.5	6	0	2	2	4	79	14.5	2	35	0	76.5
Alex Bowman	14.8	6	0	2	3	4	0	16.8	3	32	0	93
Denny Hamlin	15.2	6	0	1	2	4	46	10.5	4	29	1	94.3
William Byron	15.3	6	2	2	3	4	174	13.7	1	32	2	94.6
Daniel Suarez	15.7	6	0	2	3	4	14	20.5	2	36	0	72.2
Austin Cindric	16	5	0	1	1	3	22	14.4	3	32	1	76.4
Christopher Bell	16.2	6	0	1	2	3	22	16.3	3	23	0	82
Kurt Busch	16.3	4	1	2	2	2	149	12.3	1	39	2	95.5
J.J. Yeley	16.5	2	0	0	1	1	0	29	7	26	0	44.8
Justin Haley	17.8	6	0	0	2	3	1	22.8	7	30	0	66.9
David Ragan	18	1	0	0	0	1	0	35	18	18	0	42.4
Josh Berry	18	1	0	0	0	1	0	21	18	18	0	76.1
Darrell Wallace Jr.	18.2	6	0	0	0	4	8	24.3	13	27	0	63.3
Michael McDowell	18.3	6	0	1	1	3	0	19.3	4	27	0	60.6
Corey LaJoie	18.7	6	0	2	2	2	19	29.7	4	31	0	65
Chris Buescher	18.8	6	0	0	2	4	44	13.7	7	35	2	75.2

Recent Drivers in all their races at Atlanta
Driver	AvgFinish	Races	Wins	Top5’s	Top10’s	Top20’s	LapsLed	AvgStart	BestFinish	LowFinish	DNF	AvgRating
Ryan Blaney	11.4	11	1	4	6	9	110	12.2	1	25	0	98
Chase Elliott	11.5	10	1	2	7	9	164	12.1	1	38	1	94.4
Jimmie Johnson	11.9	29	5	14	17	21	585	11.3	1	36	2	100.3
Kyle Busch	13.6	28	2	9	13	22	558	11.7	1	43	2	92.6
Brad Keselowski	13.9	18	2	5	11	13	201	14.9	1	39	3	91.8
Erik Jones	14.5	10	0	1	3	7	10	20.7	4	28	0	72.9
Martin Truex Jr.	15.6	28	0	6	13	19	388	15.2	2	40	4	95.1
Joey Logano	16	20	1	3	7	13	358	15.6	1	35	0	86.5
Austin Cindric	16	5	0	1	1	3	22	14.4	3	32	1	76.4
Kevin Harvick	16.4	36	3	9	16	23	1,360	15	1	40	5	94.4
Christopher Bell	16.4	7	0	1	2	4	22	17.9	3	23	0	80.5
Denny Hamlin	16.9	27	1	6	10	18	438	11.5	1	43	4	94.6
Daniel Suarez	17.1	10	0	2	4	6	14	19	2	36	0	69.2
A.J. Allmendinger	17.5	15	0	1	4	11	7	23.6	3	40	1	72
Alex Bowman	17.6	11	0	2	3	7	0	19.5	3	35	0	79.6
Kyle Larson	17.8	12	0	2	4	7	423	8.8	2	36	3	86.9
William Byron	17.8	9	2	2	3	6	174	15.8	1	33	2	80.5
Justin Haley	17.8	6	0	0	2	3	1	22.8	7	30	0	66.9
Josh Berry	18	1	0	0	0	1	0	21	18	18	0	76.1
Aric Almirola	18.4	16	0	0	3	10	113	15.9	8	32	1	70.4
Ross Chastain	18.5	8	0	2	2	4	79	19.1	2	35	0	65.6
Todd Gilliland	18.8	4	0	0	0	3	0	21.3	15	27	0	57.4
Chase Briscoe	19.2	6	0	0	0	3	5	10.2	15	24	0	60.3
Tyler Reddick	19.6	7	0	1	2	3	18	13.9	5	29	2	79.1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	20	14	0	0	2	10	32	15.6	10	37	4	70.4

Picks

Per usual, we are going to be targeting pedigree, track history, and recent form. Atlanta was repaved back in 2021, but lends itself to being somewhat sticky as it is a twist on the typical plate racing setup. That being said, I will have less confidence in some longer odds drivers with less experience and/or worse equipment. Comp Tracks for this week include Charlotte, Daytona, Kansas, and Las Vegas.

Last Week’s Recap: -3.2U

Season Results: – 3.2U

Chalk:  Kyle Busch 18-1 (Bet 365 *Boost)  2U

A big part of me wants to run in back with Ryan Blaney as the top performing driver at Atlanta in both stats groups, but my gut is telling me Kyle Busch at 14-1, 18-1 with the boost. He is in the top 5 in Atlanta stats and Top 3 for all comp tracks (including 1st in rating at recent races at Charlotte, and all races at Vegas). I like them both, but the nod goes to Busch.

Mid-Range: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 40-1 (Bet 365)  0.7U

I hate this whole range of plays this week, its a dart throw. I like Gibbs, he only has 2 starts here and 1 is a Top 10, but its not the friendliest number. Based on the stats, I should like Daniel Suarez (who has a 2nd place here since 2021). McDowell rates out fairly well at a semi-friendly number, but I’m not sure I like him here as much as I would at Daytona or even Dega. And I like Stenhouse at 40. Hasn’t run well here recently, but he’s top 25 at Kansas and Vegas, and 4th in recent form at Charlotte. Also, the ’23 Daytona winner, and fared well on Monday, so to me this seems like the best value. I could see a pivot to any of these guys honestly.

Tingle du Jour: Todd Gilliland 100-1 (Bet 365)  0.35U

The season debut of the TODDFather play! Welcome back to the playbook! Listen, I really want to run it back with Lajoie after his performance at Daytona, but due to that performance he has rocketed down to 40-1. I just can’t get there pre-qual. Gilliland lands in the top 25 in all races here, and is just outside the top 25 (at 26th) in recent races. IMO, best long-shot value on the board.

Other Notables:

Erik Jones   25-1 (Bet 365) 

Corey Lajoie  40-1 (DK)

DFS Strategy

Last Week – Entered: $-29, Won: $29

Season Winnings: $0

BANKROLL. MANAGEMENT.

Now that I got that out of the way, we are following the same playbook as Daytona last week. Stack the Back is still a good strategy here, but we need to start considering Dominator points. With the shorter track, we will have 260 laps available for Laps Lead and Fastest Laps points. I would expect that we see 2 Dominators here leading a large chunk of these laps, so it’s important to consider that in builds this week. But I still think your biggest chance at chunk points is going to come from Position Differential. Same advice, sprinkle in some single or triple entry contests, pray you get 6/6 across the line, and save your money for greener pastures. 

Raise Hell Praise Dale