Viva La Mexico! Taco Bell Open week is upon us. The Tour finishes off its West Coast scheduling in Mexico this week before kicking off the Florida Swing next week for 4 straight weeks in the Sunshine State. This event marks what has continued to be a total letdown start to 2024 after the Genesis Invitational left something to be desired.
JT was cut after being the highest touted player on the slate, Tiger ODed on Zyns and had to withdraw, and Jordan Spieth gave himself a hole in one on the hardest hole on the course resulting in a DQ on Friday. The Lame Bros, Cantlay and X, on brand pissed down their collective legs on Sunday to squander any chance at lifting the trophy. Already two of the most boring personalities in one of the least intriguing sports leagues in the world, these two found a new low on Sunday. Gutless through and through. The shitshow that is the PGA Tour continues.
On a lighter note, Deki went absolutely nuclear on Sunday shooting 9 under to snatch the title. Tour is always better when one of its last remaining stars with fan interest makes it to the winner circle again after a long absence. Incidentally, it continues the longshot trend that has mired the start of the 2024 season as Deki was going off anywhere between the upper 60s and 80 pre-tourney. Hat tip to those with the cohones to pull the trigger on him at 130-1 on Sunday morning. We tried our hand at “playing the number” on Deki at AMEX where we left empty handed. Couldn’t continue to go there.
As for our card, we miss out on yet another outright. We are now 7 tournaments into the 2024 season and still searching for our first PGAT outright of the year. Far off our pace from 2022 and 2023. Frustrating but we press on. Going to lose way more than we win in this racket. With that said, our losses this week were minor and mostly attributed to the each way extras we had on Rory, Aberg, and Hovland. None even sniffed contention at any point over the weekend. Take our licks and move on. We benefited bigly from the Spieth DQ with several H2Hs against him and slammed the T20 market going 3/4.
Even a blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while. Our day will soon come and hopefully the flood gates will open back up. Until then we keep firing.
Last Week’s Recap: -3.5U
Season Results: -14U
Moving on to picks for this week at the Taco Bell Open Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.
Picks
Outrights
Finau 18 (1.7U) – Futures bet
Killa Keith Mitchell 33 (.9U)
Pendrith 35 (.85U)
Michael Kim 75 (.4U)
Even Stevens 100 (.3U)
Smalley 80 (.4U)
Lashley 100 (.3U)
Novak 175 (.15U)
FRL
Novak 110
Novak T5 14-1
T20
Vegas Bombz +225
Mav McNealy +240
Champ +250
Carson San Diego Young +275
T40
Carson San Diego Young +100
Even Stevens +130
H2H Matchups
Mitchell o Grillo
Pendrith o Grillo
Hubbard o Rai
Finau 3 Ball o Hojgaard & Grillo
Mitchell 3 Ball o Fox & Tosti
Nationality Prop
Hojgaard Top Nordic +160
WHALE PROP OF THE WEEK
Pendrith Top Canadian +130
All placements, matchups, and props are 1U each.
Preview
Course
Vidanta Vallarta Resort
– Par 71, 7456 yards
– Unique setup of 9 Par 4s (6 of them 450+ and 1 drivable sub-300 yarder), 5 Par 3s, and 4 Par 5s (2 of them 600+)
– 7 holes have a bogey rate higher than the birdie rate including 5 holes with bogey rates 20%+. The length of some of these holes will punish guys not flushing with their driver and irons
– Fairways are as big as runways and non-penal rough makes this a bombs away type of track
– 100+ bunkers across the course between the fairways and greens which stands as the only challenge this course presents other than sheer distance and the occasional coastal wind
– Plenty of water abound with 12 holes bringing water into play
– Paspalum grass from head to toe here which is the standard for resort, coastal tracks. Soft and slow grass surface which will emphasize carry distance off the tee and cause the greens to roll like shag carpet
This tournament, course and field included, can be summed up in one word, BASIC. It’s like the Chad in your office who recycles his uniform of rotating gingham shirts and grey Patagonia vest talking about how he used to hookup with 10s in college, but now he’s surrounded by 6s who spend their weekends sucking down mimosas and avocado toast while blasting the same 5 Taylor Swift songs on repeat. Greg Norman design which means the course architecture was designed like all he had was an etch a sketch at his disposal. Should you watch any action this weekend, you’ll be lucky to remember one single hole by the time Sunday rolls around. With that said, course does what it’s supposed to do and that’s attract affluent vacationers with its well-manicured landscape and and mountain views.
Big Tone returns to defend his 2023 title in the 3rd installment of this tournament where he’s been nothing short of dominant in its brief history. Jon Rahm will once again be a notable absence after deflecting to LIV as he was once the poster boy for this event as the premier Spanish speaking golfer in the world. Finau and Rahm have finished 1-2 in both of the first two years with a few others peppering the first page of the leaderboard in both years, including Brandon Wu and Cam Champ. Sounds a little like a broken record of recent but about the only thing that matters here is distance in one’s game. Whether that be with the big stick off the tee or with the long irons. One of the longest stops on Tour plays every bit its length due to the relatively flat landscape and sticky Paspalum grass which again limits rollout off the tee.
Top performers have been able to separate themselves from the field through strong OTT distance, elite 200+ yard proximity (40% of approaches come from this bucket), Par 5 scoring, and uniquely Par 3 scoring due to the 5 Par 3 setup at Vidanta Vallarta. It’s extremely easy to putt on these types of greens which is pretty typical for resort courses that cater to the weekend hacker over the refined skillset of a Tour pro. This raises the baseline for the strong ball striker x horrific putter combo like Big Tone and keep the middling players that are strong with the flatstick in play for a Sunday charge.
Profile of the top contenders is pretty much centered around guys who excel off the tee, have an elite long iron game, or have a history of resort, coastal course prowess. Really few other avenues to victory here, at least by the standards set in its short history. Course draws correlation to the Puerto Rico Open, Corales Puntacana Championship, *Prestige* Worldwide Technology Championship, and the 3M Open. The first 3 sharing the long, coastal, resort track commonality and the 3M with the preponderance of water on the course + a bomb and gouge approach.
Here are the Top 25 players in Strokes Gained Total on those correlated courses.
Betting Approach
Off the Tee – Chicks been diggin the long ball for a hot minute. Don’t hop off the train now. All driving distance here this week.
Approach – Long irons only 175-200 and 200+ yards proximity will reign supreme this week. Nearly 60% of approaches from those buckets.
Around the Green – Not difficult at this course and not super prevalent given the size of the greens. With that said, guys will have to scramble a bit with so many long approaches.
Putting – Non-factor for me mostly. Generally, if guys have played well at the correlated courses then they have shown they can get it done on the slow Paspalum greens.
Course history has such a small sample size and it’s a basic b**** track that I’m not paying it too much attention this week. Will pick and choose some guys, like Cam Champ, who just tend to show up in a big way here and at similar tracks even with horrendous form.
The field is limp *bizkit* this week as you might imagine coming off a run of high profile events and an unappetizing course. After Tony, you’ve got a few up and coming talents like Nicolai Hojgaard, Detry, and Jaeger Bombz along with a ton of retreads that play in all these weak fields. Tony is currently 7 or 8-1 which is probably fair considering his dominance at the event and lack of firepower behind him. I stumbled upon a future on him earlier in the season at 18-1 which seemed like a gift after he went off at 10-1 last year even with Rahm in the field.
If not Tony, I’d pepper the 30-70 range this week. The 20s is filled with overprices and the 100+ looks like the leftovers after 3am at a college frat party. May look good now but come Sunday morning you’ll be regrettin’ it.
Player Pool
Finau – Family and friends selection here yet again. Beyond being a no-brainer odds play at 18-1 in the futures market, Tony makes a ton of sense stats wise. Comes in 2nd in my model behind Vegas Bombz, who while a solid fit is relying on stats from early 2023 before his injury. 4th in Approach. 2nd in Opps Gained, 4th in long Par 4s (450-500 yards), 2nd in Par 5 scoring. Has plenty of distance to get it done here. Evidence by him being 1st in Approach and T2G when I filter my model by courses over 7400 yards. Track was built for Tony and his results here show.
Killa Keith Mitchell – Admittedly, I’m surprised to see Keith in this field. Cut his teeth on the Latin America tour back in 2015-2016 so no stranger to these types of coastal tracks. A persistent Top 10 finisher during his days on the Latin America tour in events in Mexico and similar geography, though safe to say the fields were nothing to write home about. He’s got a 2nd in 2018 at Corales to his name on the PGAT as well. Comes in with 3 Top 30 finishes so far in 2024 including a 9th at AMEX and 17th in Phoenix. When shortening my model to the last 12 rounds, Keith comes in 2nd behind Tony which includes 5th T2G, 1st in 200+ yard proximity, and 3rd in SG:OTT. Compared to the jabronis in this field, Keith is head and shoulders above most in talent in success.
Pendrith – Tony Finau Lite. The Canadian is 3rd in my model. 3rd T2G, 9th in Driving Distance, 5th in Par 5s, 7th in Birdie or Better. Eats up the longer tracks with easier scoring conditions like this one. 4 Top 10s dating back to the Fall Swing including a 9th at Farmers and 10th at Sony in 2024. 15th at the Worldwide Technology Championship in November as well. Finished 30th here in 2023 where he gained 4.3 on Approach and uncharacteristically lost a stroke off the tee. Expecting him to ride his strong recent form and course fit to a high finish this week.
Michael Kim – My one selection who doesn’t fit the bomber mold yet somehow consistently gets it done on these long tracks. 5th in my model including 3rd in Opps Gained, 2nd in Birdie or Better, 3rd in Par 4s 450-500 yards, 13th in Par 5s, and 14th in Par 3s. When filtering for courses over 7400 yards, he remains 2nd in Birdie or Better despite his average length off the tee. Coming in Top 3 in both Opps Gained and Birdie or Better shows he’s both firing with his irons and cashing in his chances. 6th at AMEX earlier in 2024. 30th here in 2023. 5th in Puerto Rico in 2023 which rivals the length and costal nature of this track. Think this is a great number on a guy who has shown in the last 12 months he can pop in any field.
Even Stevens – Bombs away baby. Stevens is one of the longer hitters in the field and cashes in his fair share of birdies. 4th in SG: Total in correlated courses. 5th in my model when filtering to 7400+ yard courses including 4th T2G and 1st in Birdie or Better. Recent form won’t pop, though he’s 4/4 in made cuts including a couple Top 30s so far in 2024. In 2023, he finished 3rd at Corales and 15th at Puerto Rico so he’s quickly shown an affinity for the bombers paradises like this one.
OAD
Decision is to Tony or not to Tony. While he will surely be a viable option in several bigger events in the future, you won’t ever catch Finau with more win equity than you will this week. Likely to be as popular of an OAD selection as any week this year. Also, might be one of the safest cashes you’ll get this year as he’s surely going to be in the mix based on his current ball striking form and course history. I don’t know that this is a game theory week with an average purse and so much season left, but in a larger pool I’d consider dodging the high ownership. If not Tony, there’s no shortage of guys in the next tier who similarly won’t see win equity this high all year, such as Hojgaard, Jaeger, or Pendrith. I will be looking closely at Tony, Killa Keith, and Pendrith for my OAD.
Model Results
Last 24 Rounds courtesy of Fantasy National
The Weekend Heater 
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