Welcome to Tiger Week on the PGA Tour and the Alamo for the Ponta Vedra boys. As I’m sure you’ve seen already and will be reminded 1000 times by the broadcast this weekend, but Tiger is making his 2024 debut and first tournament appearance since The Open in July. The PGAT has the stage all to themselves this week with no LIV or DP World Tour along with the game’s biggest star hosting one of the Tour’s upper echelon events. If they can’t get it right this week and stumble into a star winner then God help them.
On our end, we suffered from yet another longshot winner and Sunday demise with Nick Taylor going nuclear on the back 9 to edge out Chucky Hoffman while Theegala threw it in neutral seemingly all day long. Burns made a strong, late push but too little too late *JoJo voice*.
We did however get off the mat and catch our first outright of the year with our long lost hero, Dustin Johnson, asserting his dominance in Sin City at LIV Las Vegas. Celebrating with Paulina and the boys in Vegas on SB weekend was surely a made for TV experience.
Feels good to be a winner again. Hoping to carry that momentum into this week.
Da Drought IS (isnt) over *Lil Wayne voice*
Last Week’s Recap: +9.5U
Season Results: -10.5U
Moving on to picks for this week at Tiger’s Open aka The Genny in Los Angeles, CA.
Picks
Outrights
Rory 18 EW (3 places)
JT 27
Hovland 30 EW (3 places)
Aberg 35 EW (3 places)
Bit of a new approach this week with the 70 man field and Top 50 cut where we are chasing some of the each way extra lines on Bet365 to create more room on the card. Bit risky given the short EW places, but we only require 1 of the 3 golfers to finish Top 3 to cover the EW exposure. Given the small field and high floor of these golfers, we are feeling good about branching out with this new strategy this week.
T10
JT +150
Aberg +160
T20
Clark +125
Zalatoris +130
Hoge +220
List +240
H2H Matchups
Finau o Spieth
Cantlay o Spieth (2U)
Hoge o Putnam
Scott 3 Ball o Tom Kim & Fleetwood
WHALE PROP OF THE WEEK
Scott Top Aussie +120
Can’t’ stop won’t stop with Adam. Great form and a 2-time winner at Riv.
All placements, matchups, and props are 1U each.
Preview
Course
Riviera Country Club
– Par 71, 7322 yards
– 4 Par 3s (166 – 236 yards), 11 Par 4s (another famous Par 4 this week #10 while drivable has danger looming, 10 others falling between 400-500), p3 Par 5s (easiest handshake Par 5 on Tour at #1)
– Very tight fairways with Kikuyu grass (sticky and trap the ball on impact – also annoying to hear the broadcast repeat it) creating one of the lowest driving accuracy averages on Tour
– Plenty of bunkers both on the fairways and around the greens creating a persistent danger from start to finish – strategically placed and deep – hardest bunkers to scramble out of on Tour
– Fast Poa greens – challenging just as they have been at Farmers and Pebble Beach – making it one of the toughest courses to hit putts inside 10 feet
Preview is coming out late this week so won’t be too verbose. This is one of the best stops on the Tour all year. Elite field with the Top 50 players in the world that aren’t on the alpha tour (aka LIV) and one of the more memorable tracks the Tour boasts year in and year out. Winning score is usually in the mid-teens but the last couple years have seen guys pushing -20 with lights out ball striking. There’s been quite a bit of rain leading up to the tourney, so I expect that the softer conditions will create more birdie opportunities compared to the usual firm and fast conditions in dry Southern California.
You’ve gotta have your complete game rolling at this course or have a spike week in either driving, approach, or putting to be there on Sunday. Any part of your game that is loafing will get exposed here. Tough greens to hit with a GIR% around 57% compared to 66% on average and murderous hole locations make for a mix of sucker pins and difficult putts.
Last two winners, Rahm and Guac Niemann, have deflected to LIV however guys like Homa, JT, Collin, Cantlay, and Finua have made their presence felt with regularity at this event. Should be a fun one as we finally see calm conditions and the sweet spot of a strong field and challenging course.
We do get a cut from the 70 man field after two rounds where the Top 50 and those within 10 of the lead will see the weekend.
Betting Approach
Off the tee – Distance is king again here. Bomb Bomb Bomb is the name of the game and the jingle from the hit song “Barbara Ann” that I won’t complete. If everyone is missing the fairways anyway, midas whale have the guys hitting it the farthest. Always easier to hit a short iron out of the rough than a long one.
Approach – Similar story to Phoenix, mid to long irons will reign supreme. A ridiculous 50% of approach shots will come from 150-200 yards. Want guys showing long term success in those ranges. Leading in GIRs has shown to be a consistent key here (SHOCKER) so simply getting it on the putting surface to avoid the bunkers and unpredictable rough will be critical.
Around the Green – Guys are going to need to scramble out of these deep bunkers and tricky rough to save par. Putting inside 10 feet being extremely challenging will require you to chip it close Donny.
Putting – These greens will beat you up like you smacked Ray Rice in an AC casino. More missed putts inside 10 feet will kill your self-esteem. Cali Poa prowess is always a plus. Since plenty of guys are missing putts, you don’t necessarily have to be the best putter on Tour to do enough to win.
Course history is sticky like that Cali bud once again this week. Coming in just behind Augusta, Sony, and close with Phoenix, Riv proves to produce pretty consistent results good or bad. We’ve also only seen 1 debutant winner in the last 20 years with Adam Scott in 2005. I won’t be completely deterred from sprinkling a new kid on the block but temper expectations. Here’s the Top 20 in SG: Total at Riv.
Definitely a week to not go dumpster diving as we’ve seen lead to success in prior weeks. The longshot express ends here. I would fill my card with guys no longer than 50 and expect the top end of the leaderboard to be filled with a smattering of guys below 30. I’m going to go exclusively with guys long off the tee. Elite approach game can work here as well however with the rumored soft conditions the path to victory without the big stick gets pretty narrow. Seeing as most of the elites come in with some blemish on their recent results, I’ll be more willing to forgive some lackluster recent performances and trust long term form and results at this event.
Player Pool
Rory – Being on the Tour’s resident boy scout isn’t what I hoped for as far as rooting interests go this weekend but here we are. He comes off a wacky appearance at Pebble where he sprinted out to -6 on the first 12 holes then several untimely penalties catapulted his chances. He has some semblance of form with a 2nd and win in 2 events in Dubai during January. Owns several strong finishes in his history at this event with a 4th, 5th, and 10th over his last 5 appearances. 7th in this field in SG: Total at Riv and 1st in SG: OTT. 1st in Driving Distance. 2nd in T2G. 4th in GIRs Gained. Good ARG play as well. Course should fit him well.
JT – Well overdue for a win after starting the year with a 3rd, 6th, and 13th gaining over 7 strokes to the field in each tourney. 3 Top 10 finishes at this event including a 2nd in 2019 where he was the 54 hole leader by 4 strokes only to shoot 4 over and lose the event. He’s got unfinished business. Only a matter of time before he enacts his revenge. Strong Poa putter and ARG player. Approach and OTT in 2024 are strong with 4 straight events gaining 2+ strokes on Approach. Fits the profile as a longer hitter. Has been very strong avoiding bogeys. Fantastic number which may be one of the last times we get to bet him in the mid to upper 20s.
Hovland – Comes in after taking the week off to practice in Florida after a horrific iron display at Pebble. I think the narrative has slid too far here after he was a consensus pick to continue his ascent to the elites on Tour. Getting close to 20-1 even without the each way on a course where he’s got a 20th, 4th, and 5th in his 3 appearances seems like a step too far. Happy to try and be early on a guy who has done nothing but dominate T2G at this course. Strong long irons looking at the long term. Expect him to bounce back and be in the mix yet again.
Aberg – Trying to debunk the debutant’s can’t win narrative with Ludvig. I’ll admit I tend to trust that type of trend even though I think trends are mostly useless. Everyone says Poa takes time to get a hang of yet Ludvig has gained 1.1 and 2.7 strokes Putting in his first Cali swing. The most complete driver of the ball on Tour right now with very few weaknesses in his game. Quite possibly could have won at Pebble if the weather had cooperated as he trailed Windy by only a stroke after 54 holes. He may fall victim to taking some newbie licks in his first trip around Riv, but we’ve seen other debutants compete here before as recently as Cam Young in 2022 who finished runner-up to Guac. 2nd in Opps Gained. 4th T2G. 3rd in proximity 150-175 yards. 4th in Ball Striking. He’s got the profile and form to lift the trophy this week regardless of experience.
OAD
Massive OAD week inbound. Not only do we have a Signature Event with the elevated $20M purse but we also have the small cut to Top 50 to trim some of the fat at the backend of the payouts. This shifts the winner’s stake from $3.6M to $4M, 2nd to $2.2M, and so on. These are the weeks that you’ve absolutely got to make your hay. I recommend shooting straight to the top end in the board to maximize floor and win equity. As I believe in the cardinal rule of OAD, which is to always bet your OAD, I’ll be circling Rory and Viktor on my OAD card. I think JT, Collin, and Xander also make quality choices given their track record at this event.
Model Results
Last 24 Rounds courtesy of Fantasy National
The Weekend Heater 
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