2024 Daytona 500 Picks & Preview

ITS RACEDAY!

NostraDumbass is back for the 2024 NASCAR season and ready hoping praying to provide another season of Big Fat Winners. We had a decent 2023 season overall hitting 6 outrights on the year, but DFS was a little slimmer. Even with the DFS sharks, I expect to return to form this season and hopefully we’ll take down a contest or two to line the coffers. 

Race Recap

We had the Busch Light Clash at The Coliseum out in L.A. two weeks ago, which was ultimately moved up to Saturday night due to the impending weather. The same weather that the PGA failed miserably at planning around for Pebble Beach. I sprinkled in a few LOSER DFS entries but otherwise a nondescript event in the grand scheme of the season. Denny Hamlin gets the win on a late stage caution and restart, claiming a narrow victory over Kyle Busch. One item of note, Ty Gibbs continues to be a beast to start the 2024 season. After an incredible 2023 season, he looks to cement himself as a top contender in the current changing of the guard with the younger class of drivers these last few years. He will be a force to be reckoned with should this level of performance continue. 

This Week’s Race Preview

Daytona Boi! We are heading to Florida for the REAL start of the 2024 season. One of the more notable events on the schedule, besides Talladega and maybe Indy, even non racing fans know the Daytona 500. 

Track

2.50 mile, Paved, Tri-Oval, Superspeedway

Betting Intro & Stats

Handicapping plate races and superspeedways is always a crap shoot, but I’ll do my best here. Ideally we are going to target guys that have run well here historically and that have the pedigree to win. There are a few restrictor plate specialists (s/o Michael McDowell), but ultimately the race script will be determined by the number of drivers that DNF. On top of the general uncertainty around the script of these races, you also get a swift kick in the dick in the compressed numbers to be had at these tracks. There are only 2 drivers starting at 100-1 or longer odds as of Monday. That is why this week the betting and DFS strategy will be conserving bankroll. Having said all that, I can’t leave you without picks. First, lets take a look at some recent stats from http://www.driveraverages.com. Filtering for results at Daytona and Superspeedways since Feb 2021. Half of the guys on this list are not even in the cup series, but I am also going to fade any driver that has less than 3 starts if they happen to be in the field this Sunday.

Driver Averages at Daytona in Recent Races (since Feb 2021)
Driver ▾	AvgFinish	Races	Wins	Top5’s	Top10’s	Top20’s	LapsLed	AvgStart	BestFinish	LowFinish	DNF	AvgRating
Jamie McMurray	8	1	0	0	1	1	0	19	8	8	0	85.3
Darrell Wallace Jr.	10.7	6	0	2	2	6	28	15.2	2	20	2	83.7
Travis Pastrana	11	1	0	0	0	1	2	40	11	11	0	48.9
Joey Logano	12.5	6	0	2	2	4	99	11.8	2	23	1	96.6
Zane Smith	13	1	0	0	0	1	0	17	13	13	0	52.1
Austin Hill	14	1	0	0	0	1	0	26	14	14	0	60.9
Kevin Harvick	15	6	0	1	2	5	36	11.8	4	30	1	86.3
Kyle Busch	15	6	0	0	3	5	51	16.7	6	34	3	88.8
Chandler Smith	15	1	0	0	0	1	0	36	15	15	0	52
Alex Bowman	15.2	6	0	1	3	4	24	10	5	35	1	72.7
Chase Elliott	15.2	6	0	2	4	4	72	10.2	2	38	2	89.4
Ryan Blaney	15.7	6	1	2	3	4	48	9.7	1	36	2	75.7
Austin Cindric	15.8	5	1	2	2	3	36	16	1	37	3	89.1
Corey LaJoie	15.8	6	0	0	2	5	7	25.5	9	30	1	68.1
Aric Almirola	16.3	6	0	2	2	3	19	15.5	3	34	3	75.6
Josh Bilicki	17	2	0	0	1	1	0	36.5	10	24	0	52.8
Cody Ware	17.2	5	0	0	1	3	0	33.2	6	28	0	50.7
A.J. Allmendinger	17.5	2	0	0	1	1	9	23	6	29	0	69.2
Kurt Busch	17.7	3	0	0	0	2	0	15	12	22	0	66.1
Cole Custer	17.8	4	0	0	0	3	1	24.5	11	24	0	66.6
David Ragan	18	3	0	0	2	2	0	28.7	8	37	1	49.5
Landon Cassill	18.3	3	0	1	1	2	0	33.7	4	36	1	61.2
Austin Dillon	18.7	6	1	2	2	3	21	22.7	1	33	3	73.4
Brad Keselowski	19	6	0	1	2	3	115	13.8	2	35	3	82.2
Martin Truex Jr.	19	6	0	0	1	3	42	14.8	8	29	0	79.6

Driver Averages at Superspeedways in Recent Races (since Feb 2021)
Driver ▾	AvgFinish	Races	Wins	Top5’s	Top10’s	Top20’s	LapsLed	AvgStart	BestFinish	LowFinish	DNF	AvgRating
Jamie McMurray	8	1	0	0	1	1	0	19	8	8	0	85.3
Travis Pastrana	11	1	0	0	0	1	2	40	11	11	0	48.9
Ryan Blaney	11.2	12	2	5	7	10	168	10.4	1	36	2	87.5
Chandler Smith	13	2	0	0	0	2	0	35	11	15	0	51.1
Chase Elliott	13.3	12	1	3	7	9	111	14	1	38	2	89.8
Darrell Wallace Jr.	14	12	1	3	3	10	102	15.9	1	28	3	85.1
Kyle Busch	15.3	12	1	2	5	9	72	15.9	1	34	3	85.8
Austin Cindric	15.6	9	1	3	4	5	51	15.2	1	37	3	82.5
Kevin Harvick	16.7	12	0	2	5	8	86	13.8	4	38	1	89.5
Brad Keselowski	16.8	12	1	4	5	6	136	13.2	1	35	4	81.7
Denny Hamlin	17.1	12	0	3	4	8	224	11.6	3	37	2	82.2
Aric Almirola	17.1	12	0	2	2	7	89	13.1	3	34	3	76.5
Michael McDowell	17.3	12	1	3	5	7	8	19.5	1	39	2	68.6
Kurt Busch	18	6	0	1	1	4	10	13.3	4	35	0	75.8
Cole Custer	18	8	0	0	1	5	11	26.3	10	29	1	75.7
Austin Dillon	18.1	12	1	3	4	7	22	18.8	1	38	5	72.7
Corey LaJoie	18.1	12	0	1	3	7	9	28.6	4	35	2	64.1
Landon Cassill	18.2	6	0	1	1	4	1	35.5	4	36	1	59.4
Christopher Bell	18.3	12	0	2	3	8	83	8.1	3	36	3	80.1
Ryan Newman	18.8	4	0	1	1	2	4	20.8	3	38	1	50.8
Chase Briscoe	19	12	0	2	3	7	74	15.3	3	37	5	67.2
Daniel Suarez	19	12	0	0	4	7	41	18.1	7	36	3	62
Austin Hill	19	2	0	0	0	1	0	28.5	14	24	0	48.7
Joey Logano	19.2	12	0	3	3	5	170	9.6	2	39	3	85.4
Chris Buescher	19.3	12	1	3	4	6	54	16.6	1	40	2	75.3

Picks

As we know, pre-qualifying lines can be a blessing or a curse, allowing you to get insane value in some instances, or the exact opposite can happen and a bad qualifying time can have you pay a premium for a guy that wont be starting in the top 20. Its worth a shot to try to get value early, but I may update after qualifying and positions are set. In sticking with the format of years past, I am going to try to give three tiers of plays with some rationale. With the condensed lines this week things get a little tricky, but here’s what I’m liking off the rip.

Chalk:  Ryan Blaney 12-1 (DK)  2U

2023 Cup Series winner, solid history at Daytona with a Win in the 2021 Coke Zero Sugar 400, solid history at Superspeedways. Favorable-ish number at the top of the board.

Mid-Range: Tyler Reddick 30-1 (MGM)  0.8U

Two top 5 finishes in 6 races at Daytona since 2021 coming from an average start of ~19. Those are his only finishes inside the top 20 in those races. He’s in contention or he’s not in it at all. 

Tingle du Jour: Corey Lajoie 66-1 (Bet 365)  0.4U

No real stats to back this up, but he averages a 10 spot gain per race and does have 5 top 20 and 2 top 10 finishes in his last 6 here. Feel like he has improved a ton and races well at these tracks. Maybe just a YOLO play, but feels like value compared to the other names in this range.

Other Notables:

Michael McDowell   40-1 (MGM) 

Ricky Stenhouse Jr  28-1 (DK)

DFS Strategy

One of the easiest, yet most difficult races from a DFS perspective. Easy in the sense that if you are not leaving money on the table, you are likely not going to place. The Stack the Back strategy is in full effect here (as well as other superspeedways). We know by now the tried and true certainty of Superspeedways are the wrecks. Simplest strategy is to find quality drivers starting in the back (P20 or worse) and praying to get 6/6 through to the checkered. Having said that, taking a stud driver who can manage the race (i.e. lead laps early, shuffle to the back to avoid disaster, etc.) can easily be a recipe for the ultimate lineup. With 200 laps, there aren’t as many dominator points available as intermediate tracks, but they are still there to be had. Ultimately, Daytona and the other Supers are a bankroll management week for DFS. Sprinkle on a few single or triple entry contests and pray your guys finish the race. Maintain that bankroll until the season gets into full swing. 

Raise Hell Praise Dale