Let down city population all lingering loyalists to the PGA Tour. This was a nightmare scenario for the Tour attempting to host their flagship event of the 2024 season outside of THE PLAYERS. Field was watered down compared to the elite fields of the signature events in 2023 with the latest LIV departures. Stars like Rory, Vik, Xander, and Spieth were non-factors by lunch on Friday. We’ve seen flash mobs with better organization than the Tour officials displayed this week, who saw Sunday’s hurricane conditions from 7 days out and still did absolutely nothing to fit the tournament in.
You’ve got one of the remaining crown jewels of the Tour schedule the following week at the Phoenix Open along with another signature event, and a Tiger hosted one to boot, the following week. Recipe for a mass exodus from the WMPO along with a disinterest in a Monday finish which shocker didn’t happen. Throw in the best LIV golf tourney in their short history and you’ve got nightmare fuel for clown car captain, Jay Monahan and his cronies.
The irony of Pebble Beach ending with a 54-hole winner in a no-cut format after all the vitriol spewed by the boys in Ponta Vedra during the week LIV kicks off it’s most anticipated season to date.
For us, our own nightmare continued. Windy C takes down the title 2 weeks after this same blog claimed Clark was a must bet given his status as a top tier PGAT player coming in a long odds at AMEX. For some reason, we ignored our own advice this week when he was again priced at long odds on a not too dissimilar track. JT and Day were both within shouting distance of a Sunday run which of course was striped away. Maybe a loser’s mentality, but absolutely felt a comeback winner was live after Windy shot 60 by making nearly 200 feet of putts after a couple of ho hum rounds on Thursday and Friday.
Da Drought (isnt) over *Lil Wayne voice*
Last Week’s Recap: -5U
Season Results: -20U
Moving on to picks for this week at the People’s Open in Scottsdale, AZ.
Picks
Outrights
Homa 18 (1.7U)
Burns 27 (1.1U)
Cole 50 (1U)
Theegala 50 (1U)
Noren 80 (.4U)
Hoge 125 (.25U)
Horschel 150 (.2U)
Ryder 225 (.15U)
T20
Hoge +300
Ryder +450
T40
Noren +115
Ryder +175
H2H Matchups
Theegala o Min Boo Lee
Cole o Cam Young
Hossler o Tom Kim
Nationality Props
van Rooyen Top South African +150
Scott Top Australasian +210
WHALE PROP OF THE WEEK
Noren Top Scandinavian +125
All placements, matchups, and props are 1U each.
Preview
Course
TPC Scottsdale
– Par 71, 7261 yards (average length on Tour roto)
– 4 Par 3s (~200 yards besides famous Par 3 16th), 11 Par 4s (10 between 400-500 yards and 1 drivable), 3 Par 5s (all gettable ~550 yards)
– Played at 2nd highest elevation creating close to ~300 yard average drive
– Average fairway size w/ negligible rough but plenty of cactus and snakes to eat wayward drives and water on 6 holes
– Low driving accuracy as a result
– Fast-ish Poa Trivialis / Rye overseed greens (not Bermuda as some may report)
At this point, you know this tournament or you’ve been living under the proverbial rock of the golf world. Maybe the most recognizable golf tournament played outside of the Masters. It is the tuxedo shirt of golf tournaments. Appears to be an upstanding, historic tournament, but in reality is one massive 4-day festival in one of America’s greatest party cities. The history of this tournament turns out to be as epic as the party which transpires each year. Played yearly on Tour since the 1940s and produced winners that are the who’s who of golf. Hogan, Jack, Tiger, Phil, Brooks, and recently Scottie.
This plays like desert golf through and through. Little rough. Much cactus, brush, and sand waste areas. Firm fairways with a ton of rollout. Unless you’re a beta male, you are letting the big dog eat on most every Par 4 or 5. Leads to long drives and plenty of missed fairways. It’s a ball strikers paradise where those controlling their driver and irons can stack birdies while those getting lost in the sauce can dig a hole quickly. Bunkering in the landing zones and the desert waste areas are your tee to green defenses at TPC Scottsdale.
Winning score checks in between -16 and -19 highlighting the balance between stretches of easy scoring and challenging holes where you hold your breath for par. Course opens with a couple handshake holes with reasonable birdie rates before you can grab a beer or watch the puppy bowl until the course heats up on the back 9 on Sunday. The back 9 gives us the most exciting closing stretch in golf from where I sit. The Roman Colosseum 16th is preceded by a gettable Par 5 with a peninsula green that creates as many eagles as doubles. Hole 17 is my favorite Par 4 on Tour. Most days measures within 320 yards with water all the way up the left side of the hole and a green which dramatically slopes towards the water. Our dear friend Sahith was victimized by this hole in his quest to hold off Brooks and Cantputt in 2022. A Super Bowl pregame that only JT and Janet could top.
Green complexes are large and typically firm and fast in the dry conditions. The Poa Trivialis greens at TPC Scottsdale are silky smooth. You could wipe your ass with this grass. Far cry from the bumps of the California Poa from weeks past. Putts roll true to their lines which typically plays to a Team No Putt approach to this tournament. More heavy bunkering around the greens and runoffs will make wayward long iron approaches tough to hold.
Thursday and Friday could be scorers paradise after some early week rain which could take some fire out of the track. Surely by the weekend things should be dried up and playing to it’s traditional firm and fast condition.
Betting Approach
Off the tee – If you hit it with your purse then I don’t want ya this week. Total driving is key. Long and accurate. Mostly relying on SG: OTT. Don’t have to be a pure bomber however length will be requisite to finding regular scoring opportunities. Chicks dig the long ball in Phoenix.
Approach – 40%+ approaches sit between 150-200 yards so it’s mid to long irons this week. Wedge play don’t pay this week. Heavy SG: Approach and SG: Ball Striking (OTT + Approach) will be our guide.
Around the Green – Not overly focused ARG this week with the reasonably sized greens, but with Bogey Avoidance a value-add in our player makeup I’ll pay some attention here.
Putting – Average proximity to the hole sits north of 30 feet so this tournament both relies on quality putting yet isn’t close to a putting contest. I’m honing in on putting success historically at TPC Scottsdale along with Sawgrass, Harbor Town, and Innisbrook where Poa Trivialis is also in-play. With average proximity on the higher end, I’m trying to pinpoint the guys who have proven capable of rolling the rock on these types of greens. See below the Top 10 putters on courses with Poa Trivialis.
Course history is as sticky icky as the Js that will be smoked during the weekend rager here. 3rd most predictive after the Masters and Sony. Repeat winners like Phil, Brooks, Deki, and Scottie. Plenty of guys with multiple T10s like JT, Spieth, Bill Ho, and Sungjae. Going to play that angle into my selections this week as well. See below the Top 20 players in SG: Total at TPC Scottsdale.
It’s a weird field this week with the departure of Rahm to LIV as a yearly mainstay along with Vik and Xander withdrawing on Monday morning. Throw in Finau (a yearly fixture), Rory, Cantlay, and Aberg types resting this week and the field got top heavy quickly. It’s no Taco Bell Mexico Open field, but a far cry from the balanced fields of years past. DK had a futures market available since late Fall due to their partnership with the event so there were some juicy numbers to be had which I all but missed out on. Couple that with the cratering numbers on Monday after Vik and X WDs and it’s nearly an unbettable top of the market.
Could Scottie 3-peat? Probably. Does JT finally break out of his rut 18 month rut with a win in Phoenix that has thus far escaped him? Quite possibly. I just can’t get there. Instead, I’d dive more to stacking the 40 to 100 range as most of those guys are indistinguishable from each other, and though it’s splitting hairs there’s kryptonite at the top between Scottie and JT’s putter and Spieth’s irons.
We also want SG: Stones this week between the raucous crowds and ample risk / reward opportunities out there. No surprise that the list of winners here crossover with Major champs and PLAYERS champs. If you melt like a snowman in a monsoon then you can just pack your shit up on Sunday and go home.
Player Pool
Homa – Scottsdale resident. Plenty of strong history although not THE strongest. 5th in my model. 5th Tee to Green in this field. Good long iron player. Solid all-around game and doesn’t melt on the big stage. Big numbers play here at 18-1 when JT is sitting at 10-1 is good value.
Burns – Riding high with 2 Top 10s, including an uncharacteristic meltdown at AMEX, to start the year. 6th in last year’s edition. 1st in putting on these greens. Has the tools to take this down even if the stats don’t back it up.
Cole – Can’t stop won’t stop. Keeps churning strong performances with a 14th at Pebble including 4.5 SG on Approach. 5th on Approach in this field. 1st in 175-200 proximity. Strong around the green game and makes plenty of birdies. 4th overall in the model. Erratic off the tee game which is a little worrisome but solid number and one of the best players in this field from the fairway in.
Theegala – Near debutant winner here in 2022 before melting down on the final stretch. 13th Tee to Green in the field. 39th last year while losing 5.3 on approach which hasn’t been an issue recently. Couple of rocky performances at Sony and Farmers but bounced back last week with a 20th at Pebble. Strong putter. 50-1 is a strong number in a field devoid of a strong 2nd tier of talent.
Noren – Seemingly not getting a lot of attention this week which surprises me a bit. Comes in gaining 3+ strokes total in 6 of last 7 tourneys. 4th in putting on these greens. 11th in SG: Total and 8th in SG: Approach at TPC Scottsdale. Boasts a 6th here in 2022. Strong performance at Shriners in the desert back in October including 10.5 SG:T2G. Good value at 80-1.
Hoge – Perfect outright bet makeup for the WMPO. 14th and 25th here at 2022 and 2020, respectively. 17th at AMEX. 6th last week at Pebble. Gaining on Approach in all 5 tourneys in 2024. Gained 3.2 strokes putting last week. 2nd in this field in Opps Gained. 10th in proximity from 150-175 yard. 3rd in proximity from 175-200. At 125-1, he has shown he can get into the mix anywhere when his putter cooperates.
Horschel – Heavy course history play here. Current form is struggling in 2024. 12th in SG: Total and 3rd in SG: Putting at TPC Scottsdale. 8th in putting on these greens. 4 of the last 5 appearances at the WMPO he’s gained 5+ strokes putting. That is more than enough to compete. Owns a 6th and 9th finish here. Gaining off the tee in his last 6 events. Another low risk, high reward makeup like Hoge.
Ryder – Best value on the board in my opinion. 225-1 for a guy that has a 20th and 23rd the last 2 years here in much stronger fields. Slower start to 2024 but was cruising to end 2023. 15th in my model. 3rd in putting on Poa Trivialis. 2nd on Approach. 9th and 2nd in proximity from 150-175 and 175-200 yards, respectively. Not suggesting he should be 50 or 70-1 but at 225-1 there’s a ton of value there.
OAD
Back to a standard ~$9M purse and a weaker field than expected creates a nice opportunity to find a selection down the board a bit. Scottie is too strong of a fit at any signature event and most majors so not worth the risk. JT and Spieth present interesting cases with JT’s perceived win equity this week and Spieth’s strong course history and lower win equity at bigger events. I think JT is in for a HUGE year and is someone to save for a Florida signature event, Masters, or PGA. Spieth’s relatively high floor (if he even has one period) here has my attention but I’m likely to head down further to a Theegala, Ben An, or Sungjae type. Each has shown a solid floor at this event and holds enough win equity to stumble into a top payout.
Model Results
Last 24 Rounds courtesy of Fantasy National
The Weekend Heater 
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