We are back in action for another week of golf in the Aloha State. This time heading over to Oahu outside of Honolulu for the Sony Open at WhyLie Country Club. We slapped SeaBoo here at 50-1 last year along with Hayden Knuck if you Buckley as the runner-up so here’s to another strong weekend.
Decent start to the year at The Sentry with Collin hitting the 1st Round T5 and Collin + Xander cashing the T10 bets. Both had their chances heading into the weekend to make a run but threw it in neutral. Chris Kirk made every putt. Hard to get around that. No blood in weekend #1 which is always a plus when the goal is to hit winners.
Picks
Outrights
Conners 33 (.9U)
Cole 35 (.85U)
Theegala 45 (.7U)
Cam Davis 50 (.6U)
Denny Mac 50 (.6U)
Glover 75 (.4U)
Svensson 75 (.4U)
Benny Griff 100 (.3U)
T20
Conners +138
Hoge +320
T40
Griff +130
Hoge +130
Kizzire +240
H2H Matchups
Harman o Aberg
Todd o Benny An
WHALE PROP OF THE WEEK
Bobby Mac Top Scot -150
All placements and matchups are 1U each.
Preview
Course
We head to Waialae Country Club in Honolulu where we have a 7000ish yard Par 70 course for this week’s tourney. Normal set up with just two Par 5s which are incredibly easy with birdie rates north of 50%. Sub 200 yard Par 3s and most Par 4s between 400-500 yards. 50+% of approaches fall between 150-200 yards. Plenty of short to mid irons into these greens. Outside of the proximity to last week’s course at Kapalua, the Bermuda grass, and wind exposure, there’s not much in common between the two courses. We shift from a massive park last week to a more claustrophobic setup this week at WhyLie. Ton more trees. More doglegs and angles for guys to deal with. Fairways are necessarily small and the rough isn’t too long and penal but advantages off the tee are negated here. Most approaches funnel into the same range on each hole regardless of how far you can bomb off the tee. The Abergs of the world come down to Earth here.
Course is very comparable to the Heritage, RSM Classic, and Wyndham. Lots of target golf rather than grip it and rip it. Scoring is typically in the -18 to -20 range unless the wind is miserable so still plenty of birdies out there to be had. Greens firmer than last week which should play into the hands of the better putters compared to last week.
Betting Approach
Off the Tee: A lot of narrative around guys who hit fairways as a big angle to play this week. I’m not buying that completely (at least). Rough isn’t really penal, though it’s apparently wet which could make it tougher. Always better to play from the fairway but it’s not as murderous as others may tell you. Winners are usually playing from the fairway (shocker I know) but always a handful of guys in the Top 5-10 who are missing a lot of fairways.
Approach: Big angle for me as it always is. Focus is guys who are hitting greens within 15 feet since the greens are still large-ish and the 150-200 yard proximity range. The short to mid irons will be a major key *Khaled voice*
Around the Green: Scrambling is relatively easy here compared to most Tour stops. Guys must gain on the field though to win. Don’t need the best scramblers in the field but if you suck ass then you probably aren’t winning.
Putting: Typically a major path to victory along with the standard strong approach play angle. Bermuda greens. Pretty flat compared to last week. Fast-ish but not the fastest. Good putters should feast.
Course History: Huge course history angle this week. 2nd stickiest to only The Masters. Guys typically need a trip or two here to get their bearings and if they are trash then they don’t typically come back.
Player Pool
Conners – Most strokes gained here over the last 5 years. Terrible putter but consistently gains here which is always his buggaboo. 4th in T2G in this field. Going to be popular.
Cole – I’m pot committed at this point. Can’t miss the first W. Hate the # but is what it is. 3rd in my model. 2nd in putting. 3rd in GIRs inside 15 ft. Not the best in the proximity buckets but the putting prowess should make up for it.
Theegala – Probably the most faded player this week. On paper it’s a bad fit since he sprays it off the tee. Digging in more and I see a guy gaining off the tee in 6 straight. Good results at the Heritage and RSM. 1st in Putting. 1st in strokes gained total in the last 12 rounds. I’m going to fade the market on this one with a great number.
Cam Davis – Pivoted to Cam from Todd. Awful last week but played great in the fall. 16th in my model. Top 5 in both Par 4 ranges. Tons of great results on the shorter comp tracks. Expecting a big year.
Denny Mac – Denny putts. Coming off a year with a lot of contention. Good fit with other short comp tracks. Historically the best putter in the field over the long-term. Feels like a tourney where Denny will breakthrough.
Rose – 5th in my model. Good short iron player. Typically plays well on tracks that emphasize short iron play and putting. Strong player across the board. Going to trust the numbers and fantastic odds in this field.
Glover – Putter is cooling off big time which is a concern but has good results here in the past. 1st in approach. 1st in Tee to Green. Hits every fairway. Best wedge and short iron player in the field. Putts to a small positive and he will be there.
Svensson – Putter, short and mid irons, and driver are all Top 25 in this field. Winner at RSM. 7th here in 2022. Good course fit.
Benny Griff – Back on my bullshit with Benny bitch boy. 12th here last year. Excels in the short coastal tracks like this one. Decent form in the fall including a near win. Outside of strong putting his numbers don’t pop but similar to Denny this is just a track that fits him.
Others to consider who fit the profile for Sony: Hoge, Poston, Harman, Henley, Todd, Spaun.
Model Results
Last 36 Rounds – Courtesy of Fantasy National
The Weekend Heater 
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