Ouchiewawa. Sam Burns pissing down his leg on the last 3 holes Sunday to get tracked down by a 20 year-old college kid is not the fucking move. Have had some gutting bad beats on Sundays but this one takes the cake. A 6-time PGAT winner with a 1-stroke lead 3 holes left losing to an amateur is just all world trash. Never would think that could happen. Would have been a nice way to get the season off the ground. Anyway, we lick the wounds and move on. Gambling gods owe us one.
Moving on to picks for this week at the Farmville Insurance Open.
Picks
Outrights
Oberg 22 (1.4U)
Finau 30 (1U)
Min Boo Lee 33 (.9U)
Theegala 45 (.7U)
English 55 (.55U)
Willy Z 60 (.5U)
T20
Day +135
List +250
T40
Rose +150
Ryder +150
Bramlett +240
H2H Matchups
Theegala o Cole
Rodgers o C Bez
WHALE PROP OF THE WEEK
Conners Top Canadian +240
All placements, matchups, and props are 1U each.
Preview
Course
At the highest of levels, this is a big boy golf tournament and major like conditions. A far cry from the pitch and putt setups of the last 3 weeks. Tournament is played at Torrey Pines between their North and South Courses. Each golfer will play a round at the North Course on either Wednesday/Thursday. Remaining 3 rounds will be played on the South Course which is a familiar venue on the Tour. It was most recently home to the 2021 US Open where none other than Jon Rahm won. That should tell you that the track here plays LONG and DIFFICULT.
South course plays to over 7700 yards Par 72. Longest on Tour. North Course is far friendlier at just over 7200 yards Par 72. You can then probably deduce that the round players get on the North Course is absolutely critical to competing. 10 of the holes on the North play to a scoring average under par. Winning scores here are in the low to mid-teens so if you aren’t getting around on the North Course at least in the upper 60s then you can go ahead and scramble the PJ. Posting a mid 60s round on the North puts you on the fast track to competing down the stretch. Winning recipe is typically a -6 -7 on the North and then 3 rounds of -2 -3 on the South. Will be some outliers where guys go nuclear on the South if they are playing well.
Other than the South Course being the longest on Tour, the rough is thick, sticky, and penal (3-4 inches). Additionally, it has monsooned in the SD area Monday and Tuesday, so the rough is going to be thick and wet. If you are a pussy off the tee and don’t hit 75-80% of your fairways you are going to STRUGGLE. Don’t play your limp dick hitters off the tee outside of a handful of elite players. Patrick Reed stands as the only short hitter to win here in recent memory and he likely cheated.
The greens are Poa and on the smaller end of things and are the hardest to putt on inside 15 feet on the PGAT. Poa is a unique surface as well in that the grass grows more quickly than other putting surfaces. Guys out there in the afternoon will find them to be bumpier and more unpredictable. You’ll see a ton of missed 4 footers for par. Fear not, so will everyone else.
Not a lot of tricks at this course though. Not a ton of trees and very little water. Greens are sloped but not sneakily undulating. Well-placed bunkers off the tee, tight fairways, long rough, and small greens are the defense. Lots of long, straight holes.
Betting Approach
Off the tee – You gotta bomb it here. The wet conditions will further emphasize that. Driving accuracy is super low here so pretty much everyone will play from the rough a lot. Give me the guys who are 25 yards closer.
Approach – Long irons are the ticket here. 25%+ of approaches comes from 200+ yards. All the Par 3s are over 200 yards. Not emphasizing SG approach as much as I am scoring stats related to approach like GIRs and Opps Gained.
Around the Green – Focal point this week with the small greens and emphasis on making par.
Putting – Want guys who are either experienced on west coast Poa or elite putters inside 15 feet in general. Confidence is key here. Timid putts on these greens will be eaten up. Jam that bitch into the hole.
We are looking for a 1) bomber first and foremost – closer to the pin you are the easier even rough shots are going to be 2) accurate and a dominant long iron player or 3) A whiz around the greens.
If you can’t check these boxes then you will be thrown onto the scrap heap.
Course History tends to be somewhat sticky here but that is mostly due to a fit as a bomber and/or solid approach player and just being comfortable on Poa. No tricks here as I said. Playing this angle but not exclusively.
There’s a clear big 4 here this week in X, Cantlay, Homa, and Collin. X is a SD native and Collin/Max are Cali natives. All have elite course history here and are generally top tier players. I just cannot get there at 10-12 with the additional guys I like in the mid-tier. I’d probably go Collin if I had to.
Didn’t pull the trigger but Jason Day and Keegan are great looks here. Both have elite course history and their #s reflect it. I just cannot stomach 25 for Day and 30 for Keegan even in a top heavy field. With that said, they probably win.
Player Pool
Oberg – Hasn’t played this course before but his # is finally palatable at 22 especially in this field. X, Homa, Cantlay, and Collin are great players but not the biggest killers out there. Aberg is one of the strongest total drivers here along with a strong putter regardless of experience at the course. He’s also #1 in this field in GIRs inside 15 feet. He should have as many chances as anyone to make birdie.
Finau – Not playing well as of late but I think that’s more rust and bad fit for his game. Last 5 years he owns a 9th, 2nd, 6th, and 13th. Long driver, neutral putter on Poa, long-term strong iron player. 30 is a good # to gamble on his form.
Theegala – 4th and 25th here. Doesn’t pop statistically but tends to get it done. Cali native so comfortable on Poa. Coming off a strong showing at Sentry. Good number for his caliber.
Min Boo – Another debutant like Oberg but like Oberg is built for this course. Elite driver. Top tier scrambling and putting. Questionable iron play though. I’m bullish on his chances this year and he’s shown the ability to spike in tough conditions and first time appearances on tough courses.
English – Popular long-ish shot this week. Good reason. Historically, he’s a much higher caliber player than he’s being priced at. Great start to the year with 2 Top 15s in Hawaii. Gained 4+ strokes putting and 2+ strokes off the tee in his last 4. Neutral approach week and he should be in the mix.
Willy Z – Admittedly a shot in the dark here. Barring injury, he would be priced down in the mid-teens so 60 is a massive discount. Is he ready to win? Quite possibly not but he’s going to compete at some point. Took a big step forward at AMEX in the quality of his play and he boasts a 7th and 2nd (playoff loss to Luke List) here at Torrey. Worth a shot.
Model Results
No model this week as Fantasy National is undergoing a refresh.
The Weekend Heater 
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