We’ve closed the Aloha swing and now head back to Cali Cali for the start of a stretch of 5 weeks on the west coast with a stop in Sethsdale for the WM Open next month. Welcomed change for viewing enjoyment to fill the void of random winter weekend afternoons especially with football winding down.
We whiffed on the Sony Open this time around in the outright market. Had plenty of intrigue going into the weekend but Griffy and Davis threw it in neutral on Saturday while the leaders blew by them. Shoutout and also condolences to Nelly Vegas for the Keegs call. Brutal finish. Nobody wins with Grayson Murray coming out victorious. The Whale Prop of the Week slapped with an easy bankroll padder that had zero weekend sweat necessary.
Moving on to picks for this week at Billy McFarland’s host event The Magnesis Card.
Picks
Outrights
Tom Kim 30 (1U)
Postman 40 (.75U)
Burns 40 (.75U)
Cole 40 (.75U)
Windy C 66 (.45U)
Cam Davis 80 (.4U)
T Monty 80 (.4U)
Hoge 125 (.25U)
Ryder 175 (.15U)
Kizzire 200 (.15U)
T20
Cole +150
Postman +150
van Rooyen +350
T40
van Rooyen +175
Kizzire +188
H2H Matchups
Burns o Min Boo Lee
Finau o Min Boo Lee
Cantlay o Scottie
WHALE PROP OF THE WEEK
Cole T20 +150
All placements and matchups are 1U each.
Preview
Course
Tour heads to Palm Springs, CA for The American Express at PGA West. We get a 3 course rotation this week and a pro-am setup. Makes for a pretty shitty viewing experience and hard af to handicap. For those reasons, I’m not going to go into too much detail in this week’s tourney. It’s not a fave stop on the PGAT for really anyone. The event is incredibly volatile given the course rotation and the pro-am setup. Only 1 of the 3 courses has stats and frankly they almost never show footage of the action on the coverage.
Anyway, 3 courses that all are around 7000ish yards and Par 72s. Super short and super easy. All 3 yearly rank inside the top 5-10 easiest courses on tour. La Quinta and the Nicklaus Tournament course are the 2 courses with no stats a and the Dye Stadium course will be played twice during the week and tends to play slightly more difficult (still mad easy). Each pro in the field will be paired with an amateur who is really some ColeCorp executive or PwC blowhard rather than a real celebrity. The actual celebrities will come out in a couple weeks at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am which is equally hard to handicap with the same setup but an infinitely cooler course and list of celebrities.
Guys will play each of the 3 courses Thursday-Saturday before a T65 and ties cut trims the field before the final round Sunday back at the Stadium course. Stadium course attempts to mimic much of TPC Sawgrass with a desert feel. This creates the only real defense of course which is water throughout and some weird visuals off the tee. It’s the desert so while temps will be a little cool in the morning the rest of the day is pristine. Random spurts of wind but mostly it’s just ideal playing conditions. Similar to the Shriners in Vegas or WM Open in Scottsdale.
More than half the holes play under par on average and the rough is nonexistent here so unless you find the water you are basically in the fairway. With the pro-am setup, the pins will be extremely accessible as to avoid the paper pushers from carding a bunch of 10s which puts pretty much every pro in attack mode. Guys will almost certainly find the water at least once a round and make bogey or double but fear not a birdie or eagle is probably coming. Par 4s are all less than 450 yards creating a lot of 100-125 wedge shots and the Par 5s are all reachable in two which mixes in some long irons rather than a ton of woods unless you’re soft.
Betting Approach
Will be pretty straightforward this week rather than breaking down by stat category. Plainly speaking it’s all about making birdies. With the easy pins, most good iron players won’t have to grind on the greens much with sticking everything inside 10 feet and for those that don’t’ have the same accuracy the greens are very gettable this week. Won’t be super fast and aren’t incredibly undulating unlike the last two weeks in Hawaii. Lean to guys who keep the ball in play off the tee to avoid stacking too many water balls but not overly worried there. Good wedge players. Guys who can feast on Par 5s. Slight nod to guys who are good on Par 3s since those are the hardest holes here.
Super volatile event. Wouldn’t invest much at all if you do indulge. Easy to get totally cleaned out like I did in 2023. Rahm has won twice as a big fave but otherwise it’s longshot city with several 200-1 or more winners. Course history doesn’t mean a ton with the easy setup. It’s all in front of you. Would give a tiebreak to guys who fit well and have performed but not a requirement like last week. Some winners have missed the cut as many as 3 straight years prior to winning.
Player Pool
Not a week to burn up a stud in one in done even with the tempting stronger than normal field. This is a birdie fest of birdie fests which tends to bring in every loser journeyman who can get hot for a few days.
Tom Kim – This is a TK course. 2-time winner at Shriners which is the #1 comp course. 6th here last year while losing a ton off the tee which is abnormal. Tends to spike on easy setups.
Postman – Hottest player on the planet right now. Super chalky this week and for good reason. 7 T10s in last 11 starts. 2nd in birdies or better and 3rd in Opps gained. He’s sticking it close and cashing it. A win is coming or at least another chance at one. 2 Top 10s here in the past including 6th last year.
Cole – Basically a carbon copy to the Postman writeup. I’m pot committed at this point. Sets up very well here as an elite birdie maker.
Burns – Doesn’t pop in stats at all but a prolific winner as far as guys in this middle tier go. Elite putter and when the irons are hot he can compete with anyone. Easy pins should play to his advantage. 3 Top 20s including a Top 10 here.
Windy Clark – Strong putter (2nd in putts inside 10 feet), eats Par 5s, good birdie maker. Mostly a numbers play. Grades out decently well and shouldn’t be 66-1.
Cam Davis – Spikes on shorter courses. Quality putter. Longer driver who keeps it in play. Chews up Par 5s. Good Shriners and AMEX results
T Monty – If the event is before February then you play Taylor Montgomery. Somehow eats in the fall and early Cali swing. Best putter in the field with no Denny. Makes a ton of birdies. 7th from 100-125 yards. Coming off back to back events where he gained on approach where he usually sucks. Recipe for another strong week.
Hoge – Played him last year here at 40-1. Things have gone sideways since for Tom. Still kills the approach game. One week his putter will cooperate
Ryder – Hasn’t played yet in 2024 which isn’t a good sign to win. Tends to be around in these birdie fests. Irons were en fuego to end 2023. Worth a dart at 175 that the irons continue.
Kizzire – A 5th straight made cut and another Top 20 finish. 2-time winner on tour. Can put the lights out. Gained 8.6 on the greens which would have been good for a T5 finish if any other part of his game had been on.
Others to consider: Hadwin (shot 59 here once), Rickie, Jaeger, Lowry, Asskay, Pendrith
Model Results
Last 36 Rounds – Courtesy of Fantasy National
Not weighting this as much this week as I normally would given the volatility and super easy conditions. Worth a look still.
The Weekend Heater 
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